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Getting Sentimental

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We believe that wherever possible, we should remove emotions from our trading psychology and try to act logically and systematically when making trading decisions. That’s because there are facets of our emotional selves that are just no good when it comes to making money. Impulses that encourage us to snatch at profits, make rash trades and run losses can be detrimental to our wealth in the same way that running out into a stream of moving traffic could be very detrimental to our health. We could go so far as to say that there is no room for sentiment at all in trading, but if we said that we wouldn’t be entirely correct. Because while it’s true that we want to remove sentiment and emotion from our own trading, we should be quite happy to take advantage of other people’s sentiments.


Picking the right wave

Trading is effectively a three-way competition. First, you compete with yourself and your psyche, of course, you also compete with the market in the same way that a surfer competes with the ocean. That is reading the changes in the swell and the wind in order to pick to the right waves. However, you are also competing with other traders, because in forex for every winner there is a loser, and to make money, you need to try to ensure that other traders and not you are on the losing side, more often than not. To succeed, we need to follow a rules-based trading strategy that helps us back only the best trading opportunities that the market presents to us. We also need to try and develop an edge over our competition, that is other traders.

Of course, we don’t and can’t know who these other traders are, and even if we did it wouldn’t do us much good, because there are millions of them spread out across the globe trading away at any one time. However, the fact that there are so many competitors out there can work in our favour. Why? Because a crowd that big leaves a trail that we can follow and that can provide us with an edge.


Tracking the markets thinking

One of the methods that we can use to gauge what the rest of the market is thinking and doing is to look at what they are buying, selling and saying. That is measuring the sentiment towards the markets, and doing that in aggregate.

 

There are several ways in which we can do this. For example, we could study the weekly Commitment of Traders reports that are produced by the US CFTC which track changes in positioning in listed futures contracts (including FX majors) among key investor and trading groups. However, these reports are released three days in arrears, late on Friday afternoon in the USA. What’s more, they are not exactly user friendly in terms of their layout or the way that the data is presented or in the ease of interpretation (the CFTC is not known for its beautiful charts!).

 

Perhaps a more simplistic way to track trader sentiment is to look at what’s happening to the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and government bonds. If these instruments are rising in price, then that’s a sign of Risk-Off sentiment among traders.

 

If those safe-haven assets are strengthening when risk assets such as equities and Emerging Market currencies like the South African rand, Brazilian real and Turkish lira etc. are weakening, then you will know it’s risk-off. Of course, if we see risk assets appreciating while safe-havens are falling in price, that’s an indicator of Risk-On sentiment among market participants.

 

However, there are quite a few items to monitor the strategy outlined above. Since we are trying to gauge the aggregate sentiment of the crowd, it would be good if we had an indicator to gauge sentiment across a wide range of assets as well.

 

True we could try to use the VIX and other volatility indices, volatility is a measure of the rate and severity of price changes within an instrument or market. It tends to rise sharply as markets become fearful and trend lower when fear subsides and greed re-asserts itself. But once again, this would mean monitoring multiple items from different sources, to which we may have varying degrees of access.


A single gauge of sentiment?

Instead, what if we had one indicator that could tell us what others in the markets were thinking?

 

Fusion Markets has partnered up with some very talented engineers to simplify this even further.

 

Using cutting-edge artificial intelligence techniques known as Natural Language Processing (NLP), we can use machines to take in hundreds of thousands of data points across the web to gauge sentiment.

 

Are people talking about the Aussie dollar? What are they saying exactly? Are they positive or negative?

 

What about Gold? Is the crowd bullish or bearish?

 

To do this, yourself (e.g. scour hundreds of thousands of sources across the web) would be impossible. That’s why we always say there’s never been a more exciting time to be a trader (at least with Fusion anyway) and have these tools available that were previously only available to the world’s best hedge funds and asset managers.

 

We’ll leave it to you as to whether or not the crowd thinking it is highly bullish is a good signal to trade or a bad one and the strategy here (if you’ve read our views previously, you will know the answer!). Still, while it is not the holy grail as a single strategy, we believe this is a handy weapon to add to your arsenal to get an edge over others.


To start using our Sentiment tool now, create a Fusion account (it's free and there's no obligation to trade).

We’ll never share your email with third-parties. Opt-out anytime.

Relevant articles

Trading and Brokerage
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Exploring Different Trading Instruments
Fusion Markets
A diverse range of trading instruments is available in the financial markets, each presenting its own set of opportunities and challenges for investors.



Introduction


Forex stands out as the largest and most liquid market globally, facilitating currency exchange 24/5 across major financial centres worldwide. Meanwhile, precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum hold enduring appeal as timeless assets valued for their intrinsic worth and utility across various industries.  


  • Indices, such as the S&P 500, offer snapshots of broader market performance, guiding investors in tracking trends and making informed decisions about resource allocation.  

  • Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have disrupted traditional finance with their decentralised and highly volatile nature, reshaping the financial landscape.  

  • US share CFDs provide traders with leveraged exposure to American equities without owning the underlying assets, opening up avenues for speculation and hedging within the dynamic US stock market. 


Understanding the distinct characteristics and dynamics of each trading instrument is crucial for navigating the financial markets effectively. Each instrument has its own unique features, including liquidity, volatility, and correlations with other assets, which significantly impact trading strategies and risk management approaches.  


For example, forex trading thrives on its liquidity and accessibility but is also prone to significant volatility and sensitivity to economic indicators. On the other hand, precious metals often serve as safe-haven assets during times of economic uncertainty but are subject to supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions.  


By understanding each asset's characteristics, traders can tailor their strategies to suit specific instruments, maximising opportunities and mitigating risks for consistent and profitable trading outcomes. 

Forex Icon

Forex Trading


The foreign exchange market is a global decentralised marketplace where currencies are traded. Participants include banks, financial institutions, corporations, governments, and individual traders.  


Currency pairs represent the exchange rate between two currencies. The most commonly traded pairs include EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar), GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar), and USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen). Each pair consists of a base currency and a quote currency, with the exchange rate indicating how much of the quote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency.  


Forex trading operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, across major financial centres worldwide, including London, New York, Tokyo, and Sydney. This continuous trading cycle allows for around-the-clock trading, providing ample opportunities for market participants to engage in buying and selling currencies. 


What moves prices


There are many factors that contribute to the volatile price movements. Economic indicators play a significant role, including interest rates, inflation rates, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment figures, and trade balances. Central bank policies, such as monetary policy decisions and interventions in currency markets, can also impact currency valuations.  


Geopolitical events and developments, such as political instability, trade tensions, and conflicts, can cause sudden shifts in investor sentiment and currency flows. For example, the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.  


Market sentiment, driven by speculation, fear, and greed, can lead to short-term fluctuations in currency prices. Traders often employ a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to anticipate market movements and make informed trading decisions in the dynamic forex market environment. 

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Precious Metals Trading


Precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum, have captivated humanity for centuries due to their inherent beauty, scarcity, and utility.  


Gold, often referred to as the "king of metals," holds a special place in history as a symbol of wealth, luxury, and stability. Its lustrous appearance and resistance to corrosion make it ideal for jewellery and ornamental purposes.  


Silver, known for its affordability and versatility, boasts a wide range of industrial applications, from electronics to medicine.  


Platinum, rarer and more precious than gold, is coveted for its durability and resistance to tarnishing, primarily used in catalytic converters, jewellery, and laboratory equipment. Together, these precious metals form the cornerstone of investment portfolios, serving as safe-haven assets and hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty. 


What moves prices


The prices of precious metals are influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, along with various economic factors.  


On the supply side, mining production, exploration efforts, and recycling rates impact the availability of precious metals in the market. Geopolitical factors, including mining regulations, labour strikes, and geopolitical tensions, can disrupt supply chains and affect production levels.  


Demand for precious metals stems from diverse sources, including jewellery fabrication, industrial manufacturing, investment demand, and central bank reserves.  


Economic indicators, such as interest rates, inflation expectations, and currency valuations, also exert significant influence on precious metals prices. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty or inflationary pressures, investors flock to precious metals as store-of-value assets, driving prices higher. On the contrary, a strengthening economy or rising interest rates may dampen demand for precious metals, leading to price declines.  


Understanding these supply and demand dynamics, coupled with macroeconomic trends, is essential for investors and traders seeking to navigate the intricacies of the precious metals market. 

Stock Market Image

Indices Trading


Stock market indices, such as the S&P 500, play a pivotal role in providing investors with insights into the performance of specific segments of the financial markets. The S&P 500, for example, represents a diverse basket of 500 large-cap US companies, spanning various industries and sectors. These indices serve as benchmarks, allowing investors to gauge the overall health and direction of the stock market. Additionally, they facilitate portfolio diversification and asset allocation strategies by providing a broad overview of market trends and movements. 


Stock market indices are calculated using weighted averages of constituent stocks' prices or market capitalisations. The weighting methodology varies depending on the index, with some indices employing market-cap weighting, where larger companies exert a greater influence on the index's performance, while others utilise price weighting or equal weighting.  


What moves prices


Changes in the prices of constituent stocks, driven by factors such as corporate earnings, macroeconomic indicators, and investor sentiment, impact the index's value.  


Indices are rebalanced periodically to reflect changes in market dynamics, ensuring their relevance and accuracy in tracking overall market performance. By tracking indices, investors can assess the performance of their portfolios relative to the broader market, identify trends, and make informed investment decisions based on market benchmarks. 

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Cryptocurrency Trading


The cryptocurrency markets exhibit unique features that distinguish them from traditional financial markets, with volatility and decentralisation standing out as prominent characteristics.  


Volatility, fuelled by speculative trading, market sentiment, and regulatory developments, is inherent to cryptocurrency markets, leading to rapid price fluctuations and heightened risk.  


Additionally, cryptocurrencies operate on decentralised blockchain networks, bypassing traditional financial intermediaries like banks and enabling peer-to-peer transactions. This decentralisation fosters transparency, security, and censorship resistance, empowering individuals to control their assets and participate in a borderless financial ecosystem.  


Despite the challenges posed by volatility and regulatory uncertainty, the decentralisation of cryptocurrencies continues to disrupt traditional financial systems, offering a glimpse into the future of finance. 

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US Share CFDs Trading


US Share CFDs trading offers investors a flexible and leveraged approach to accessing US equity markets without owning the underlying assets.  


Contracts for Difference (CFDs) allow traders to speculate on the price movements of US shares, including popular companies such as Apple, Google, and Amazon, without the need for direct ownership.  


CFDs provide flexibility, enabling traders to take both long and short positions on US shares, thereby capitalising on both rising and falling markets. However, it's essential to acknowledge the risks associated with CFD trading, such as leverage-induced losses, counterparty risk, and overnight financing charges.  


In addition to maintaining strict risk management, traders need to stay informed about market developments, and conduct thorough research, in order to mitigating risk and achieving long-term success in trading US share CFDs. 


Click here for more information on the trading products provided by Fusion Markets.

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Choosing the Right Trading Instruments


Selecting the right trading instruments is a critical decision that hinges on various factors, including individual trading goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.  


Novice traders may opt for instruments like forex or precious metals, known for their liquidity and relatively lower entry barriers.  


Experienced traders, on the other hand, might explore more complex instruments such as cryptocurrencies or US share CFDs, leveraging their market knowledge and risk management skills.  


It's essential to align chosen instruments with specific trading objectives, whether it be short-term speculation or long-term investment. Additionally, understanding one's risk tolerance is essential, as certain instruments, like cryptocurrencies, are inherently more volatile than others and may not suit everyone's risk appetite. 


Diversification and portfolio management also play a crucial role in mitigating risk and optimising returns when trading multiple instruments. Diversifying across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, helps spread risk and minimise exposure to any single market or sector.  


Additionally, within each asset class, diversification can be achieved by selecting a mix of instruments with varying risk profiles and correlations. Effective portfolio management involves regularly reviewing and rebalancing the portfolio to ensure alignment with changing market conditions and investment objectives. By diversifying and actively managing their portfolios, traders can enhance resilience against market fluctuations and achieve more consistent and stable returns over the long term. 


Conclusion


Navigating the diverse array of trading instruments demands a comprehensive understanding of their respective characteristics and dynamics. From the liquidity of forex markets to the resilience of precious metals, each instrument presents unique opportunities and challenges for traders.  


By embracing sound risk management principles, honing analytical skills, and aligning trading strategies with individual objectives, market participants can prosper in any market environment.  


As you dive deeper into the world of trading, we encourage you to explore our range of products and accounts at Fusion Markets, empowering you to seize opportunities and chart your path to financial success.

Trading Instruments
Forex Trading
Precious Metals
Stock Indices
Cryptocurrencies
US Share CFDs
Financial Markets
25.07.2024
Trading and Brokerage
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Index CFD Dividends | Week 22/07/2024
Fusion Markets

Please see the table below for any upcoming dividend adjustments on indices for the week starting July 22nd, 2024.


Dividend Table 22.07.2024

* Please note these figures are quoted in the index point amount

 

What is a dividend?


Dividends are a portion of company earnings given to shareholders. As indices are often composed of individual shares, an index dividend pays out based on individual shares proportional to the index’s weighting.


Trading on a CFD Index does not create any ownership of the underlying stocks, or an entitlement to receive the actual dividends from these companies.

 

What is an ex-dividend date?


An ex-dividend date is the cut-off date a share must be owned in order to receive a dividend. If an investor buys a share after the ex-dividend date, then they will not be entitled to earn or pay the next round of dividends. This is usually one business day before the dividend.

 

Do dividends affect my position?


Share prices should theoretically fall by the amount of the dividend. If the company has paid the dividend with cash, then there is less cash on the balance sheet, so in theory, the company should be valued lower (by the amount of the dividend).


Due to the corresponding price movement of the stock index when the ex-dividend date is reached, Fusion must provide a 'dividend' adjustment to ensure that no trader is positively or negatively impacted by the ex-dividend event.

 

How will the dividend appear on my account?


The dividend will appear as a cash adjustment on your account. If your base currency is different from the currency the dividend is paid out in, then it will be converted at the live FX rate to your base currency.

 

Why was I charged a dividend?


Depending on your position, given you are holding your position before the ex-dividend date, you will either be paid or charged the amount based on the dividend. Traders shorting an index will pay the dividend, whereas traders who are long the index will be paid the dividend.

 

Why didn’t I receive my dividend?


You may not have received a dividend for a number of reasons:


- You entered your position after the ex-dividend date

- You are trading an index without dividend payments

- You are short an index


If you believe the reasons above do not apply to your position, please reach out to our support team at [email protected] and we’ll investigate further for you.




Forex Trading
CFD
Dividends
01.07.2024
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