The forex symbol USD/BRL indicates the exchange rate value between the USD (US dollar) and the BRL (Brazilian Real)

 

Currency background

USD (US dollar)

 

The USD dollar is the United States of America’s official currency. Each dollar is made up of 100 cents. It is represented by US$ when differentiating it from other countries’ dollar currencies. However, they are more often just marked as $.

 

This currency has become the benchmark for other currencies because it is the most popularly used one. Even territories beyond the US have commonly used it as an unofficial currency.

 

Because it is often at the core of foreign-exchange trades, it has its own index – the USDX. It is regarded as the world’s most stable currency.

 

Brazilian Real (BRL)

 

The Brazilian Real (BRL) is Brazil’s official currency. Each Brazilian real is made up of 100 centavos. It is represented by the R$ symbol.

 

It was first used as the country’s official currency in July 1994. It replaced the cruzeiro real. The exchange ratio between the former and the current currencies are not 1:1, either. 1 real is equals to 2,750 cruzeiro real.

 

From 1994 to 1999, BRL was pegged to the USD as an attempt to maintain stability. As the largest Latin American economy, it is worth looking into. It is also the 9th largest in the world.

 

If you’re considering taking the USD/BRL pair, here are the things to consider:

 

Economic Conditions

 

Currency values depend on the economic conditions and public reception of their country’s stability.

 

Since the mid-twentieth century, the USD dollar has established itself as a powerhouse in the global economy. However, because it is a fiat currency, it is also affected by the United States’ economic outlook and activity.

 

Its strength may be good for the country itself. It can also be good for those who may be relying on its general strength to earn in foreign exchanges.

 

However, a powerful USD can be detrimental to countries relying on exports from the United States.

 

While the USD is obviously strong throughout, much can be said about Brazil’s economy as well. It is believed to be one of the strongest emerging economies due to its rich natural resources.

 

Its diversity in economy has spurred foreign investment to pour in. With an estimated $200 billion of direct investments, Brazil’s currency is doing great.

 

It wasn’t always the case. The currency faced several currency crises such as the Mexican currency one from 1994 to 1995, and the one with Asia and Russia in 1997 and 1999. Investors then didn’t want to have anything to do with the Brazilian real.

 

Supply and Demand

 

When the US exports more products, it triggers more demand for its currency because customers must change their money to dollars to be able to pay for the goods.

 

The US government and top American corporations may also issue bonds that can be purchased only with the US Dollar. Foreign investors must buy dollars to buy those financial instruments.

 

Because of the overall reliability and strength of the US dollar, a lot of investors will still buy the currency as a reserve.

 

Perception

 

Currencies depend on perception or market sentiment. For example, if people have been watching the news, finding out about a weakened US economy or increased unemployment, the tendency is to buy back their local currency. This will lower the value of the dollar.

 

The same goes with the BRL, but even worse since it is a less popular currency. While its economy is doing well and has it placed up there among emerging markets, political corruption could be its downfall.

 

Geopolitical Conditions and Global Risks

 

One of the factors that affect perception is geopolitical conditions. How are the politics in the country?

 

USD is a dominant global reserve. It may experience some lows, but it is always generally high in value. Recent events have this fiat currency on the rise, too. On the other hand, Brazil also started strong this year and has been pulling from Russian assets.

 

What can provide some volatility in the USD/BRL pair is Lula’s recent election as the President of Brazil.

 

How to trade USD/BRL

 

Now that you know the strength of the individual currencies, how do you trade the USD/BRL pair?

 

The value you get will depend on the exchange rate between the two.

 

While USD is a stable currency, Brazilian real is the currency of an emerging market. It means that Brazil’s GDP has been steadily growing from 2000. A similar trend is expected to continue.

 

You will earn a profit because an emerging market’s GDP tends to grow rapidly. However, you must be vigilant because it is also at risk of being negatively impacted by political instability and currency fluctuations. Weigh risks against rewards.

 

Pick the right time frame

 

Trade when the USD/BRL is at its busiest, and potentially at its most volatile. The 8:00 to 12:00 Eastern Time frame is also the time when USD details are more readily available.

 

It is when significant chunks of data have been released that a currency pair’s volatility increases. Be watchful at this time because you will have increased opportunities for profitable trades.

 

Conclusion

 

USD/BRL is useful if you want to diversify your foreign exchange portfolio. Your portfolio may see increased gains/losses when one of the fiat currencies in your portfolio is an emerging one.

 

Why?

 

Emerging currencies are more likely to display greater volatility. They have also been steadily rising since 2000. Though the previous formation is not a guarantee of future performance, the current strength of currencies like the Brazilian Real is reassuring.

 

Of course, you will be dealing with two currencies that can give you a lot of value. The USD is always strong. Meanwhile, BRL performs well because of the resources and commodities that Brazil can export. Exports can strengthen both currencies because they prompt investors to buy them.

The foreign exchange pair USD/CNH (or otherwise known as USD/CNY) is the trading ticker symbol for the powerful but volatile pair of the United States dollar and Chinese Renminbi. Chinese Renminbi is the official currency of the People’s Republic of China, but each individual unit of currency is called Yuan. These two are considered as “exotic” or volatile pairs, mainly because a major currency, USD, is paired with that of an emerging nation, CNH.

 

While considered volatile and generally treated with higher liquidity, the USD/CNH pair is the combination of the world’s two largest economies. The unique relationship between the two countries of the two currencies makes the combination both potent and fascinating.

CURRENCY BACKGROUND

United States Dollar

The United States Dollar is the official currency of the United States of America and several other countries. It is popularly known as the “greenback” due to the bills’ predominantly green color.

 

The Coinage Act of 1972 paved the way for the introduction of the US dollar. The fiscal policy of the United States is under the control and supervision of the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the nation’s central bank as well.

Chinese Yuan

The Renminbi is the official currency of the People’s Republic of China. The Yuan is the basic unit of the Renminbi, but it is also used to refer to the currency in general, especially in an international context.

 

In 1948, or one year before the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) introduced the Renminbi. As the new government of China expanded its hold on its territories, it began to steadily issue the Renminbi so as to have a unified currency in the land. Since then, the Renminbi, or Yuan, has been in circulation and has been the official currency of China.

IMPLICATIONS OF USD/CNH CURRENCY PEGGING

The US and China have always had a love-hate relationship that greatly affects not only their trade relations but that of the world as well. The past decades saw a series of pegging and de-pegging between the two currencies. Here are a few key periods that saw the biggest impact and highlighted the importance of currency pegging.

1995-2005

The US Dollar is freely convertible into all currencies of developed economies. On the other hand, the Chinese government is managing the Chinese Yuan’s value. From 1995, Chinese Yuan was at a “hard currency peg” at 8.38 against the US Dollar. For a decade this seems to be the case, and for this reason, it received wide criticism, mainly from the US government. The expectation that there should be a movement in the currency exchange of Yuan (given that China’s economy saw big growth) was not seen. This move by China is seen to protect its interest as, by artificially keeping the value of the Yuan down, Chinese importers were given a competitive advantage: a lower Yuan exchange rate reflects a stronger Chinese currency because you would need fewer Yuan to purchase one US Dollar.

2005

July of 2005 saw a revaluation of the Yuan by the People’s Bank of China by 2.1 percent. PBOC likewise announced a shift to a “soft peg,” which will allow the Yuan to trade more freely within a certain managed exchange rate range. While some criticized the change for being too “insignificant,” many economists praised the move and saw it as the first step towards a more flexible currency exchange system.

2010 - present

Since 2010, China continued its efforts of reforming its exchange rate system by giving the buying and selling forces in the market a freer reign in determining the exchange rate.

IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN TRADING USD/CNH IN FOREX

Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, or most commonly known as The Fed, is the United States’ central bank. It is responsible for the monetary policies of the nation and sets the interest rates of the dollar investments eight (8) times in any given year. The Fed provides direction to strengthen the US Dollar and in maintaining its fluidity and stability.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC)

PBOC is China’s central bank. It has the duty of implementing monetary policies – even unconventional ones – to ensure that CNY remains competitive and afloat. PBOC likewise sets a daily midpoint rate, which serves as a basis in trading Renminbi or Yuan within 2% in either direction.

Trade Wars

Being major players in the international trading arena, trade wars in the form of imposition of additional tariffs and sanctions greatly affects the values of the currencies. In the 2018-2019 US-China Trade standoff, when Trump imposed a series of sanctions against China’s products and exports, China retaliated by lowering the exchange rate value of CNY below its USD peg.

USD/CNH Weekly - Nov 2017-2018

CONCLUSION

Is the USD/CNH worth the risk for your investment?

 

As a volatile combination, is it worth the risk to invest in USD/CNH?

 

While it seems counterintuitive, the pair remains to be one of the most popular, given that the combination represents two of the most powerful economies in the world.

 

The US Dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, and remains to be the most widely used currency when it comes to international transactions. The Chinese Yuan represents the continuous and rapidly rising economy of China, the world’s largest exporter. Their advantages when taken individually could be the pair’s strength when taken cumulatively.