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The Seven Most Common Mistakes I’ve Observed Traders Make

By Phil Horner

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 I’ve been in this industry for over a decade now and have been in a very fortunate position to learn a lot by watching others. I’ve seen the good, the bad and the ugly by watching tens of thousands of traders across various brokers.


Let me start off by saying that I am by no means perfect and I have (even recently) done quite a few of these myself. But knowledge is power, so I wanted to provide my observations of where things can start to go wrong, based on my own experience of sitting on the sidelines.  


1.      Ignoring Basic Risk Management aka Trading too big for their accounts


I have to start with risk because I believe it’s THE most important concept.


"Risk is what's left over when you think you've thought of everything" 


Unfortunately, risk management is not sexy, however. It makes people fall asleep when you hear someone talk about risk management.


Risk can mean many things, but it’s especially prescient when it comes to Forex Trading due to the leverage that’s involved. Unfortunately, it’s a gift and a curse.


I always tell traders that leverage is like driving a fast car. It’s nice to know you’ve got that power if you want to use it. And most of the time you don’t want to (nor should you) drive 100km/h on a busy street.


That is how I best describe the use of too much leverage.


It’s great that you have the flexibility with it if you need it, but you shouldn’t be maxing out the margin on every trade. It gives you less flexibility if the trade goes against you and kills way too many traders too soon.


I’m not a big fan of martingale systems and have seen this ruin many traders; however, depending on the circumstance, I do enjoy averaging into a trade. After all, if I liked buying EURUSD at 1.1000, wouldn’t I also like it at 1.0960 where I’m getting a lower average entry?


Many forex education providers will advise you never to risk more than 1% on any trade, and this can be good advice, yet I’d say more than half of traders I’ve seen will routinely trade at least 10x that. Some will even come close to margin call triggers on the first trade. Frankly, this can just be like lighting money on fire.


It might not be as “fun” to trade when it’s so small. But if you’re getting too excited by it all, maybe you’re taking on too much risk.

 

2.       Too many trades/ Trading outside of the area of competence


A close cousin of too much risk is taking too many trades, or branching out into other areas.


There’s a reason that doctors specialise in one area. You’d probably be scared if you saw an eye doctor have a go at performing surgery on the brain.


Stick to just a handful of products at the time (I’d say a maximum of five, preferably three). If there is a correlation between them, that’s fine but don’t assume your knowledge of the yen will mean you’re a great trader of the Turkish Lira.


In most investment banks back in the day when they had large proprietary desks, traders would only stick to a few currency pairs. You’d be on the “yen” desk or the “sterling” desk. That makes much sense as there’s only so much information you can absorb.


If I see a client that is successful trading in currencies who then makes a jump to the Indices it often is a sure sign of trouble ahead.

 

3.      Getting caught up in FX Headlines/Mainstream Media


Many will disagree with me on this one, but following the same headlines as everyone else in forex trading can sometimes lead you astray.


Yes, you need to be informed about what’s going on. You shouldn’t stick in your head in the sand.


Howard Marks said it best when he remarked: “You can’t do the same things others do and expect to outperform”.


If you’re reading Bloomberg headlines saying so and so thinks EURUSD is heading to 1.10, then every man and his dog is reading the same thing. Ask yourself what do you know that isn’t already baked into the price? How can you have the edge over someone else? Is it really by consuming the same news like everyone else?


Being contrarian in life might make people think you’re strange, but in the financial markets, I find it invaluable. The markets are (mostly) efficient, and a lot of what you see is already factored into the price. You need to think differently to the market if you want to get ahead. Remember the GBP after Brexit? Analysts were calling for parity against the USD. You’d be crazy to buy it people said. Fast forward, and it was probably one of the best trades you could’ve made once the negativity died down.

 


4.      Not using a Demo


This is a pretty standard one, but if you’ve started trading without using a demo first then you’re asking for trouble.  


Do think you can be a pilot after a day of flying lessons? Then when you’re risking your money, you can't be expected to perform well in the markets without doing some practice first.


It takes a lot longer than people think to master their craft at trading and many mistakes on the way.


That being said, you can also spend far too much time on a demo and never understand the psychology of a real trader with real money and emotions on the line. So do practice, but just like when you learn to ride a bike, you will need to take the training wheels off at some point. That’s why we recommend having a demo and a live side by side (and Fusion offers unlimited demos for funded accounts)

 

5.      Moving Stops and Limits


Ah, the old “Greed and Fear” comment. Lots of people will talk to you about how two things kill a trader/investor, and that’s greed and fear.


Good trading is about good entries and exits.


Traders I’ve seen have spent much time setting up the perfect entry, but then they don’t have an exit plan.


The trades go well for them and then all of a sudden, the greed sets in. Suddenly, their take profit has been bumped up just a little bit higher to capture that extra drop of profit. Then boom! All of a sudden, the trade has reversed, and their profits have disappeared faster than you can say margin call.


Trading without stops and limits is also just as bad. You never know what “black swan” can happen while you’re away from your platform or are asleep. Having protection in the form of stops and limits can help minimise your risk. You can also try to use “trailing stops” which move up as the price moves in your direction. Ask me how if you need a hand with these.

 

6.      Ignoring the important of Psychology


You might’ve read my other posts about biases and psychology. But my personally believe that life is 80% psychology, 20% strategy and I believe trading is no different.


If you can master your trading psychology, you’ll be a far better trader for it.


This is everything from being too afraid to enter a trade, to being too greedy to close it to learning even more about all the biases we have and how to prevent them.


 7.     Not having a strategy 


Yes, I believe trading is 80% psychology. But you still need the 20% that comes from a strategy.  


What is your strategy? Why would (or should) that give you an edge? How long has the strategy been successful for? Is it technical or fundamental based?


You know the quote – if you to fail to plan, you plan to fail. You can’t show up and hope for the best. You’ll get killed. That’s where testing comes in whether that’s via a backtest of an algorithmic strategy or if it’s just applying the strategy on a demo. Or even just starting small with micro-lots.


You need a strategy if you’re going to succeed.


Sure you might get lucky for a little bit, but it won’t last forever.

 

Overall, this isn’t a definitive list and unfortunately, following it blindly is no guarantee for success in the markets.


We all make mistakes. I know I do – all the time. But I hope that the above is useful for you as I’ve had a window into watching traders for a long enough time.


Did I miss any? Was there something you thought was even more important? I’d love to hear from you.

 

 


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Components of Forex Market Microstructure




Order Flow Trading


Order flow is the net volume of buy and sell orders in the market and plays a major role in shaping price movements. Increased buying pressure can push prices up, whilst selling pressure often leads to declines. By analysing order flow, traders can gauge momentum and anticipate short-term price shifts.



Bid-Ask Spreads


The difference between the bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices reflects market liquidity and can vary depending on trading volume and volatility. Wider spreads generally indicate lower liquidity or heightened risk, while narrower spreads signal a more stable and liquid market. Monitoring bid-ask spreads helps traders assess market conditions and transaction costs.



Market Depth and Forex Liquidity


Market depth refers to the volume of buy and sell orders at various price levels, offering insights into forex liquidity. High market depth indicates robust liquidity, making it easier to execute large trades without impacting prices. Shallow depth, however, can lead to higher volatility, as fewer orders can cause rapid price changes.



Market Participants


The forex market comprises of various participants, including;

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  • Banks – Central & Commercial
  • Hedge funds & Investment portfolios
  • Corporations
  • Institutional Traders
  • Retail traders



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Large players such as banks and hedge funds have a significant influence on price movements due to their transaction volume. In contrast, retail traders have less influence individually but can impact markets in aggregate, particularly in lower liquidity situations.



Price Discovery Process


Price discovery is the process by which the forex market determines the price of a currency pair. This process is heavily influenced by information asymmetry, where certain participants have more information than others, often leading to advantages in trading. For instance, institutional traders may have access to economic forecasts before retail traders, potentially moving prices before the data reaches the wider market.


High-frequency trading (HFT) has also become a significant part of price discovery. HFT involves executing trades at extremely high speeds, often driven by algorithms designed to capitalise on minute price discrepancies. While HFT can add liquidity, it can also cause rapid price changes that impact the price discovery process.



Liquidity Providers and Market Makers


Liquidity providers, such as banks and large financial institutions, ensure the forex market operates smoothly by offering to buy or sell at quoted prices, maintaining liquidity.


Market makers are liquidity providers who actively facilitate trades by setting bid and ask prices. By adjusting these prices, market makers can influence short-term price movements, especially in low-liquidity situations.


Market makers operate through both electronic trading and voice trading channels.


  • Electronic trading, facilitated by platforms and algorithms, is known for its speed and efficiency.

  • Voice trading, on the other hand, is often reserved for complex or large orders requiring negotiation, allowing for nuanced price adjustments in response to changing market conditions.



Order Types and Their Impact


The type of order a trader places can affect market dynamics significantly:


  • Limit Orders: These are orders to buy or sell at a specified price or better. They contribute to market depth and can create temporary support and resistance levels, as these orders accumulate in the order book.

  • Market Orders: Executed immediately at the current price, market orders can trigger rapid price shifts, especially if large orders are placed in low-liquidity periods. Market orders are often used to enter or exit positions quickly but may lead to slippage.

  • Stop Orders: These orders, triggered when prices reach a specified level, can amplify market moves as clusters of stop orders trigger simultaneously. This is common in trending markets, where stop-loss orders cascade as prices rise or fall.

  • Hidden and Iceberg Orders: Hidden orders are not visible in the order book and are typically large institutional orders that aim to reduce market impact. Iceberg orders reveal only a portion of the total order, with the remainder hidden until the visible part is filled.


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Microstructure Anomalies and Opportunities


Understanding market microstructure can help traders identify unique trading opportunities:


  • Flash Crashes and Liquidity Holes: Flash crashes occur when liquidity temporarily dries up, causing sharp, rapid price declines. Such anomalies are often triggered by HFT algorithms or large, sudden orders in thin markets, such as the Asia session. Identifying potential liquidity holes can help traders avoid losses in volatile moments.

  • Arbitrage Opportunities: Discrepancies in currency prices across different platforms or regions can lead to arbitrage opportunities. While these are usually short-lived, microstructure knowledge can help traders identify and act on price inefficiencies quickly.

  • Leveraging Microstructure Knowledge: Advanced traders can use microstructure insights to make informed decisions, such as placing orders at levels where hidden liquidity or large stop orders might exist. This allows them to anticipate moves driven by institutional activity or market maker adjustments.



Conclusion


Forex market microstructure highlights the true forces that drive price movements, from order flow trading and market depth to the impact of different participants. For traders, understanding these components is crucial to being successful in the forex market. By analysing and having a thorough understanding of microstructure, you can gain a competitive edge, interpreting price action in real-time and making more strategic decisions.


As the forex market continues to evolve, staying updated on microstructure concepts and integrating them into trading strategies can lead to a deeper understanding of market behaviour. This knowledge can enable you to adapt and succeed over the long-term.


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12/11/2024
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