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USD/CNH (USD/CNY): An Overview

Fusion Markets

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The foreign exchange pair USD/CNH (or otherwise known as USD/CNY) is the trading ticker symbol for the powerful but volatile pair of the United States dollar and Chinese Renminbi. Chinese Renminbi is the official currency of the People’s Republic of China, but each individual unit of currency is called Yuan. These two are considered as “exotic” or volatile pairs, mainly because a major currency, USD, is paired with that of an emerging nation, CNH.

 

While considered volatile and generally treated with higher liquidity, the USD/CNH pair is the combination of the world’s two largest economies. The unique relationship between the two countries of the two currencies makes the combination both potent and fascinating.


CURRENCY BACKGROUND


United States Dollar


The United States Dollar is the official currency of the United States of America and several other countries. It is popularly known as the “greenback” due to the bills’ predominantly green color.

 

The Coinage Act of 1972 paved the way for the introduction of the US dollar. The fiscal policy of the United States is under the control and supervision of the Federal Reserve System, which serves as the nation’s central bank as well.


Chinese Yuan


The Renminbi is the official currency of the People’s Republic of China. The Yuan is the basic unit of the Renminbi, but it is also used to refer to the currency in general, especially in an international context.

 

In 1948, or one year before the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) introduced the Renminbi. As the new government of China expanded its hold on its territories, it began to steadily issue the Renminbi so as to have a unified currency in the land. Since then, the Renminbi, or Yuan, has been in circulation and has been the official currency of China.


IMPLICATIONS OF USD/CNH CURRENCY PEGGING


The US and China have always had a love-hate relationship that greatly affects not only their trade relations but that of the world as well. The past decades saw a series of pegging and de-pegging between the two currencies. Here are a few key periods that saw the biggest impact and highlighted the importance of currency pegging.


1995-2005


The US Dollar is freely convertible into all currencies of developed economies. On the other hand, the Chinese government is managing the Chinese Yuan’s value. From 1995, Chinese Yuan was at a “hard currency peg” at 8.38 against the US Dollar. For a decade this seems to be the case, and for this reason, it received wide criticism, mainly from the US government. The expectation that there should be a movement in the currency exchange of Yuan (given that China’s economy saw big growth) was not seen. This move by China is seen to protect its interest as, by artificially keeping the value of the Yuan down, Chinese importers were given a competitive advantage: a lower Yuan exchange rate reflects a stronger Chinese currency because you would need fewer Yuan to purchase one US Dollar.


2005


July of 2005 saw a revaluation of the Yuan by the People’s Bank of China by 2.1 percent. PBOC likewise announced a shift to a “soft peg,” which will allow the Yuan to trade more freely within a certain managed exchange rate range. While some criticized the change for being too “insignificant,” many economists praised the move and saw it as the first step towards a more flexible currency exchange system.


2010 - present


Since 2010, China continued its efforts of reforming its exchange rate system by giving the buying and selling forces in the market a freer reign in determining the exchange rate.


IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN TRADING USD/CNH IN FOREX


Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China


Federal Reserve


The Federal Reserve, or most commonly known as The Fed, is the United States’ central bank. It is responsible for the monetary policies of the nation and sets the interest rates of the dollar investments eight (8) times in any given year. The Fed provides direction to strengthen the US Dollar and in maintaining its fluidity and stability.


People’s Bank of China (PBOC)


PBOC is China’s central bank. It has the duty of implementing monetary policies – even unconventional ones – to ensure that CNY remains competitive and afloat. PBOC likewise sets a daily midpoint rate, which serves as a basis in trading Renminbi or Yuan within 2% in either direction.


Trade Wars


Being major players in the international trading arena, trade wars in the form of imposition of additional tariffs and sanctions greatly affects the values of the currencies. In the 2018-2019 US-China Trade standoff, when Trump imposed a series of sanctions against China’s products and exports, China retaliated by lowering the exchange rate value of CNY below its USD peg.


CNY Depegging and artificial manipulation

USD/CNH Weekly - Nov 2017-2018



CONCLUSION


Is the USD/CNH worth the risk for your investment?

 

As a volatile combination, is it worth the risk to invest in USD/CNH?

 

While it seems counterintuitive, the pair remains to be one of the most popular, given that the combination represents two of the most powerful economies in the world.

 

The US Dollar is the world’s primary reserve currency, and remains to be the most widely used currency when it comes to international transactions. The Chinese Yuan represents the continuous and rapidly rising economy of China, the world’s largest exporter. Their advantages when taken individually could be the pair’s strength when taken cumulatively.

 


Currency Trading USD CNY CNH Forex

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Market Analysis
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Introducing Six New Base Currencies for Forex Traders

Estimated Read Time: 15 minutes 

In an era where global markets are constantly evolving, adaptability and innovation have become the cornerstones of success. With this ethos in mind, we are pleased to announce the introduction of six new base currencies by Fusion Markets. Embracing the diversity of international finance, we are now offering traders the opportunity to engage with the Norwegian Krone (NOK), Swedish krona (SEK), Czech koruna (CZK), Hungarian forint (HUF), Swiss franc (CHF), and Danish Krone (DKK) as base currencies. 


Key Points:  

  • Fusion Markets has added six new base currencies: Norwegian Krone (NOK), Swedish Krona (SEK), Czech Koruna (CZK), Hungarian Forint (HUF), Swiss Franc (CHF), and Danish Krone (DKK). 

  • These additions aim to provide traders with more flexibility and access to a broader range of currency pairs. 

  • Each currency has a unique history and plays a significant role in its respective country's economy. 

  • The new base currencies offer opportunities for portfolio diversification and exposure to different economic regions. 

  • Traders can benefit from Fusion Markets' low commissions, zero minimum deposit, and access to multiple trading platforms. 

  • Understanding the correlations between these currencies and major global currencies is crucial for effective trading strategies. 

  • The introduction of these base currencies reflects the evolving nature of the global forex market and the importance of adapting to new opportunities.



Table of Contents

This expansion marks a significant milestone in our commitment to empowering traders with enhanced flexibility and access to a broader range of currency pairs. As the forex landscape continues to evolve, it is essential for traders to have access to a comprehensive selection of base currencies to navigate the ever-changing trends of the global economy. Let's explore their history, unique characteristics, roles, and correlations within the global financial ecosystem.

By registering with Fusion Markets, you will get access to: 

  • $0 minimum deposit 

  • No minimum account size 

  • White glove customer support 

  • Range of markets (including Forex and our new base currencies) 

  • TradingView, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader 

 

TRADE NOW 


Norwegian Krone (NOK)


The Norwegian Krone, denoted by the symbol "kr" and the currency code NOK, has been in circulation since 1875 when Norway joined the Scandinavian Monetary Union. Like many currencies, the Krone is subdivided into smaller units, known as øre, with 100 øre equaling 1 Krone. While Norway initially pegged its currency to gold, it later adopted a floating exchange rate regime, allowing market forces to determine its value. 

 

Historical Background of the Norwegian Krone 


The initial introduction of the krone occurred in 1875 as it replaced the speciedaler. At that time, the exchange rate was set at four kroner for one speciedaler. Subsequently, Norway became a part of the Scandinavian Monetary Union, a coalition that remained in existence until the outbreak of World War I. Throughout the Union's existence, the Norwegian krone adhered to the gold standard until 1931 when it was pegged to the British pound. 


In 1939, Norway's currency was linked to the U.S. dollar (USD). However, during the German occupation of Norway in World War II, it was tied to the Reichsmark. Following the war's conclusion, the currency was once again pegged, this time to the British pound (GBP). Shortly afterward, the krone's peg shifted to the US dollar until 1971 when it was allowed to float freely in the market for seven years before being linked to a basket of currencies. Then, in 1992, the central bank opted to move away from a fixed exchange rate system, enabling the currency to float based on foreign exchange rates. 

 

Correlations of the NOK 


The Norwegian krone ranks as the 14th most traded currency globally by value and exhibits a strong correlation with other currencies. Its value against major counterparts such as the US dollar and euro experiences significant fluctuations from year to year, primarily influenced by shifts in interest rates and global oil prices. 


Even long after the dissolution of the Scandinavian Monetary Union, the Krone maintains a notable correlation with the Danish krone and the Swedish krona. Conversely, its correlation with currencies like the British pound, euro, Canadian dollar, and others tied to oil prices remains comparatively low. Notably, some establishments in Oslo, Norway’s capital city, accept payments in US dollars or euros for goods and services. 


As a prominent oil exporter in Western Europe, Norway derives a substantial portion of its budget from oil revenues. Consequently, the value of the krone is closely intertwined with fluctuations in crude oil prices, reflecting trends in the global oil market. 


For instance, during the oil crisis of 2015, the krone depreciated by 20% against the dollar, marking its lowest level in a five-month period from October 2014 to February 2015. To learn more about other top Forex events in the new millennium, visit our blog. 



Swedish Krona (SEK)


The Swedish krona, symbolised as "kr" or "SEK," serves as the national currency of Sweden. With a rich history established in 1873, replacing the Swedish riksdaler as Sweden joined the Scandinavian Monetary Union, the SEK is renowned for its resilience and stability. 


Sweden's export-oriented economy, characterised by industries such as automotive, engineering, and telecommunications, heavily influences the SEK's performance. Furthermore, the SEK's correlation with global economic trends and monetary policies makes it an attractive option for traders seeking exposure to the broader European market. 

 

Historical Background of the Swedish krona 

The origins of the Swedish krona can be traced back to the 17th century when Sweden transitioned from the silver standard to a bimetallic monetary system. Over the centuries, the krona evolved, experiencing fluctuations in value, and undergoing reforms to adapt to changing economic conditions. 


In 1873, Sweden joined the gold-standard-based Scandinavian Monetary Union, pegging the krona to gold. Subsequently, Sweden embraced a floating exchange rate regime, allowing the krona's value to be determined by market forces. 

 

Correlations of the SEK 


The Swedish krona (SEK) exhibits correlations with various currencies, with some of the notable ones including: 


  • Euro (EUR): Given the proximity and extensive trade relations between Sweden and the Eurozone countries, particularly Germany, the Swedish krona often shows a significant correlation with the euro. 

  • Norwegian krone (NOK): As neighbouring countries with intertwined economies, Sweden and Norway often experience correlated movements in their respective currencies, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. 

  • Danish krone (DKK): Similarly, Sweden's proximity to Denmark and their shared economic ties can result in correlations between the Swedish krona and the Danish krone. 

  • US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is a major global reserve currency and a key player in international financial markets, so movements in the USD can influence the Swedish krona's exchange rate. 

  • British Pound (GBP): While not as strong as some of the other correlations mentioned, the Swedish krona may also exhibit some level of correlation with the British pound, particularly due to trade relations and economic ties between Sweden and the United Kingdom. 

 



Czech Koruna (CZK)


The Czech koruna, represented by the symbol "Kč" or "CZK," is the official currency of the Czech Republic. Emerging as a key player in Central Europe's economic landscape, the CZK embodies the region's transition towards a dynamic market economy. 


With a focus on manufacturing, automotive, and technology sectors, the Czech Republic's export-driven economy shapes the CZK's performance. Traders eyeing opportunities in Eastern Europe will find the CZK a compelling addition to their forex portfolios. 

 

Historical Background of the Czech Koruna 


Since February 8, 1993, the Czech koruna has served as the official currency of the Czech Republic, replacing the Czechoslovak koruna following the dissolution of Soviet Czechoslovakia into independent Czech and Slovak republics. Both the Czech koruna and the Slovak koruna (SKK) were introduced at par value in lieu of the Czechoslovak koruna. 


Despite joining the EU in 2004, the Czech Republic has not yet adopted the euro (EUR) as its official currency. Nevertheless, the nation remains in preparations to transition to the common currency, albeit without an official target date for implementation. Originally, the Czech Republic aimed to adopt the euro in 2012, but opposition led to the postponement of this move following a 2007 vote. 

 

Correlations of the CZK

 

The Czech koruna (CZK) exhibits correlations with various currencies, with some of the notable ones including: 

 

  • Euro (EUR): Given the geographical proximity and economic ties between the Czech Republic and the Eurozone countries, particularly Germany, the Czech koruna often shows a significant correlation with the euro. 

  • US Dollar (USD): As one of the world's primary reserve currencies and a key player in global financial markets, movements in the US dollar often influence the Czech koruna's exchange rate. 

  • Polish złoty (PLN): Due to Poland's proximity to the Czech Republic and the significant trade relations between the two countries, there tends to be a correlation between the Czech koruna and the Polish złoty. 


Hungarian Forint (HUF)

  • The Hungarian forint, being another currency from a neighbouring country in Central Europe, may also exhibit correlation with the Czech koruna due to shared economic factors and trade relations. 

  • Slovak koruna (SKK): Historically, before Slovakia adopted the euro, the Slovak koruna maintained a correlation with the Czech koruna due to their shared history and close economic ties as part of the former Czechoslovakia. 

 

These correlations may vary over time and can be influenced by factors such as economic conditions, trade relations, geopolitical events, and monetary policies of respective countries. Traders and analysts often monitor these correlations to gain insights into potential trends and movements in the Czech koruna's exchange rate. 

 

The Czech Republic's Approach to the Euro 


Concerns stemming from the European debt crisis stand as a primary factor driving resistance to the Czech Republic's full integration into the Eurozone and the adoption of the euro as its official currency. While eventual euro adoption is anticipated for the Czech Republic, recent discourse has also entertained the notion of the nation's potential departure from the European Union altogether. 


Termed 'Czech-Out' or 'Czexit' by the media and some political analysts, this concept parallels Brexit, depicting a scenario where the Czech Republic exits the European Union entirely. Although Czech President Miloš Zeman does not endorse the idea of EU departure, he has expressed openness to holding a referendum, allowing citizens to vote on the matter, similar to the process undertaken by the U.K. in June 2016. 


Despite these discussions, the Czech Republic boasts a relatively robust economy within the EU. It exhibits one of the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates and among the lowest unemployment rates, standing at approximately 2.9% in 2019, with inflation hovering around 2.8%. While unemployment experienced a modest increase in 2020, it settled at 3.8% as of November 2020. 

 

Hungarian Forint (HUF):

 


The Hungarian forint, denoted by the symbol "Ft" or "HUF," stands as the official currency of Hungary. Rooted in a rich tapestry of history and culture, the HUF reflects Hungary's economic resilience and dynamism. As a prominent player in Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary's diverse economy encompasses industries such as automotive, manufacturing, and agriculture. The HUF's correlation with regional economic developments and monetary policies offers traders a gateway to the vibrant markets of Eastern Europe. 

 

Historical Background of the Hungarian Forint  

The Hungarian forint saw its initial usage between 1868 and 1892, but it wasn't until 1946 that the modern forint was officially introduced, with the aim of stabilising the national economy in the aftermath of World War II. The currency derives its name from the gold coins of Florence known as fiorino d'oro, minted from 1252 onwards and widely circulated throughout the Austro-Hungarian Empire. 

 

While the forint's exchange rate has displayed some level of stability, uncertainties within the nation's economy have adversely impacted its value in the foreign exchange market. For instance: 

 

  • The acceptance of the Treaty of Trianon in 1920 following World War I had profound repercussions on the Hungarian economy, marked by the loss of over 70% of its pre-war territory and more than 60% of its pre-war population. Five of Hungary's ten largest cities prior to World War I were absorbed by neighbouring countries. This, coupled with war reparations and the erosion of its tax base, led to a significant devaluation of the HUF, with annualised inflation peaking at nearly 1,200% in 1923. 

  • In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Hungary, along with several other central and Eastern European nations, transitioned away from communist rule, prompted by economic stagnation and inflation. The transition, though challenging, was peaceful. Hyperinflation soared to 35% during the 1990s as Hungary embraced a market economy. Although the economy showed signs of improvement in the 2000s, rampant inflation undermined the currency's convertibility. 

  • Hungary's export-oriented economy heavily relies on a skilled labour force. Key trading partners include Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Romania, and Austria. Notable industries encompass car manufacturing, production of car parts, and manufacturing components for radios and televisions. 

 

According to World Bank data, Hungary reported a -4.7% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and a 5.1% inflation rate in 2021. This downturn primarily stemmed from the economic repercussions of the global COVID-19 pandemic. 

 

Correlations of the HUF 


The Hungarian forint (HUF) exhibits correlations with various currencies, including: 

 

  • Euro (EUR): Given Hungary's geographical proximity to the Eurozone and its extensive trade relations with Eurozone countries, particularly Germany, the Hungarian forint often shows a significant correlation with the euro. 

  • Polish złoty (PLN): Poland and Hungary have significant trade relations, but Poland does not share a direct border with Hungary. Therefore, the Hungarian forint may exhibit correlation with the Polish złoty. 

  • Czech koruna (CZK): Similar to Poland, the Czech Republic shares a border with Hungary, and there are considerable trade ties between the two countries, potentially leading to correlations between the Hungarian forint and the Czech koruna. 

  • Romanian leu (RON): Romania is another neighbouring country to Hungary, and while the economic ties may not be as extensive as with Poland or the Czech Republic, there can still be correlations between the Hungarian forint and the Romanian leu. 

  • US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is a major global reserve currency, and movements in the USD can influence the Hungarian forint's exchange rate, especially during times of global economic uncertainty. 

 



Swiss Franc (CHF)


The Swiss franc, symbolised as "CHF," holds a revered status as a safe-haven currency and a bastion of stability in the global financial landscape. Renowned for Switzerland's tradition of neutrality, fiscal prudence, and financial sophistication, the CHF embodies the quintessential attributes of a haven asset. Switzerland's thriving banking sector, precision engineering, and pharmaceutical industries underpin the CHF's allure as a currency of choice for investors seeking refuge during times of uncertainty. 

 

Historical background of the Swiss franc 


Until 1798, approximately 75 entities within Switzerland were engaged in coin minting activities, resulting in the circulation of 860 distinct types of currency featuring varying denominations, weights, and monetary systems. Among these currencies were thalers originating from cities such as Bern, Basel, Zurich, and Geneva. 


In 1798, the Helvetic Republic introduced a new monetary framework, anchored by the Berne thaler, equivalent to six grams and three-quarters of pure silver. This currency, known as the franc, remained in circulation until the dissolution of the Helvetic Republic in 1803 but continued to serve as the basis for currencies utilised by several member states of the Reformed Swiss Confederation. 


In 1848, with the adoption of the new Swiss Federal Constitution, the exclusive authority to issue currency within the country was granted to the federal government. The initial federal monetary legislation, enacted on May 7, 1850, by the Federal Assembly, established the franc as the official monetary unit of Switzerland. Concurrently, both the Swiss franc and the French franc were introduced into circulation. 


The establishment of the Latin Monetary Union between 1865 and the 1920s, comprising Switzerland, France, Belgium, and Italy, further intertwined the Swiss franc's value with those of its counterparts. Under this union, the currencies of all four nations were pegged to the value of silver. Additionally, the Swiss franc was incorporated into the Bretton Woods exchange rate system following World War II, a framework that persisted until the early 1970s. Notably, until 1999, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc was tied to the price of gold. 

 

Factors Influencing the Swiss Franc (CHF) 


  • Swiss National Bank and Monetary Policy 


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) serves as Switzerland's central bank, entrusted with the responsibility of formulating monetary policy and managing exchange rates. Unlike some central banks, the Swiss National Bank does rely on a specific policy rate, previously the Libor target range, to regulate monetary conditions. Previously, it utilised FX swaps and repurchase agreements to influence both the money supply and interest rates. To bolster liquidity, the Bank engages in purchasing US dollars (or other foreign currencies) against Swiss francs. SNB officials wield the ability to impact the Swiss franc through their statements and commentary concerning the currency, liquidity, and monetary matters. Any alterations in monetary policy have consequential effects on the currency. 


  • Macroeconomic Indicators 

A plethora of economic indicators relating to Switzerland's economy and market, including inflation, employment data, GDP rates, and industrial production, exert influence on the Swiss franc. 


  • Cross-Exchange Rates 

Fluctuations in non-dollar exchange rates or cross-exchange rates can influence the USD/CHF pairing. Fluctuations in non-dollar exchange rates or cross-exchange rates such as GBP/CHF may not have a significant or predictable impact on USD/CHF, due to the weaker correlation between the British pound and the Swiss franc. 


  • Positive Correlation with the Euro 

The Swiss franc exhibits a positive correlation with the euro, owing to the close economic ties between Switzerland and the Eurozone, particularly Germany. This correlation is notably apparent in the inverse relationship between the USD/CHF and EUR/USD pairs. When the EUR/USD experiences sharp movements upwards or downwards, the USD/CHF reacts correspondingly but inversely, consistently moving in the opposite direction. 

 


Danish Krone (DKK)


Danish Krone, represented by the symbol "kr" or "DKK," serves as the official currency of Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. As a stalwart of Scandinavian prosperity and innovation, the DKK reflects Denmark's enviable track record of economic stability and social welfare. Denmark's diversified economy, encompassing industries such as renewable energy, shipping, and agriculture, shapes the DKK's performance. Moreover, Denmark's commitment to prudent fiscal policies and sound governance enhances the DKK's appeal as a reliable currency for international traders. 

 

Historical Background of the Danish Krone 

 

A timeline with purple dots and a plane Description automatically generated with medium confidence 

The history of coin production and usage in Denmark spans numerous centuries, with organised minting activities dating back to as early as the 10th century. The earliest official Danish coins were established on the Carolingian silver standard, a system of silver currency introduced in France during the era of Charlemagne, aiming to replace the gold coinage of the Roman Empire. This silver-based monetary system, consisting of pennies, shillings, and pounds, eventually became the foundation for the British pound sterling in Great Britain. 


Regrettably, Danish monarchs, like many rulers of their time, pursued practices of periodically debasing their currency by reducing the actual silver content in minted coins, leading to multiple remonetisations in attempts to restore public trust in the nation's monetary system. One significant event in this regard was the inception of the current Danish krone in 1875. 


The introduction of the krone coincided with a period when transactions involving coins were becoming increasingly cumbersome, prompting a transition towards greater reliance on printed banknotes alongside the implementation of the new currency. 


Denmark made several endeavours to fix its currency to the gold standard, but ultimately abandoned this endeavour in 1931, coinciding with Great Britain's decision to depart from the gold standard in the same year. During Denmark's occupation by Germany in World War II, the Danish krone was temporarily linked to the German Reichsmark, followed by a peg to the British pound in the immediate postwar era. 


Presently, the krone is pegged to the euro under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) II, a mechanism aimed at curbing excessive volatility in the euro's exchange rate with European trading partners. Over recent decades, Denmark has contemplated joining the eurozone and adopting the euro as its official currency. However, the most recent public referendum in 2000 narrowly rejected this proposition by a margin of 53% to 47%. 


 

The Danish Krone in Forex Trading 


The Danish Kroner (DKK) holds a distinctive position within the realm of Forex trading, presenting opportunities and perspectives that are indispensable for traders seeking success in navigating the global currency market. Serving as the official currency of a nation renowned for its stable economy, high living standards, and robust financial systems, the DKK serves as a conduit for comprehending the Scandinavian financial landscape. 


  • Stability and Security: 

Denmark's economic stability finds manifestation in its currency, rendering the DKK a preferred asset for traders seeking safe-haven investments amid periods of global economic uncertainty. The nation's strong fiscal policies, minimal inflation rate, and transparent governance contribute to the stability of the Kroner, instilling a sense of confidence in Forex traders. 


  • Diversification: 

Engaging in DKK trading enables investors to diversify their currency portfolios, spreading risk and accessing markets characterised by lower volatility. The DKK's correlation with major currencies like the Euro and the US Dollar equips traders with strategic alternatives, empowering them to make informed decisions aligned with global economic trends. 


  • Insight into the Scandinavian Market: 

Understanding the DKK is essential for traders interested in the Scandinavian region, as the currency serves as a bellwether for the area's economic well-being. It furnishes valuable insights into market dynamics, investment prospects, and potential risks prevalent in the region. 


  • Trading Strategies: 

Forex traders can leverage the stability and regional significance of the DKK to formulate tailored trading strategies. Whether engaging in carry trades, utilising the currency for hedging purposes, or capitalising on its low volatility for short-term gains, the DKK offers a spectrum of opportunities suitable for both novice and seasoned traders. 


 

Correlations of the DKK 


The Danish krone (DKK) exhibits correlations with various currencies, including: 

 

  • Euro (EUR): Given Denmark's proximity to the Eurozone and its extensive trade relations with Eurozone countries, particularly Germany, the Danish krone often shows a significant correlation with the euro. 

  • Swedish krona (SEK): Denmark shares a border with Sweden, and both countries have significant trade relations. Therefore, the Danish krone may exhibit correlation with the Swedish krona. 

  • Norwegian krone (NOK): Norway is another neighbouring country to Denmark, and while the economic ties may not be as extensive as with Sweden, there can still be correlations between the Danish krone and the Norwegian krone. 

  • British Pound (GBP): While there may be some level of correlation between the Danish krone and the British pound, the correlation is generally weak. The Danish krone is more heavily influenced by the Euro due to Denmark's ERM II peg. 

  • US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is a major global reserve currency, and movements in the USD can influence the Danish krone's exchange rate, especially during times of global economic uncertainty. 

 

Conclusion



In conclusion, the introduction of these six new base currencies underscores our dedication to providing traders with unparalleled opportunities to diversify their portfolios and capitalise on emerging market trends. Whether it's harnessing the resilience of the Norwegian Krone, navigating the intricacies of the Swiss franc's safe-haven status, or tapping into the dynamic economies of Central and Eastern Europe, our expanded offering opens doors to a world of possibilities in forex trading.  


For further insights into currency pairs and the foreign exchange market, register with Fusion Markets to stay updated on all the latest macroeconomic developments. 

 

 

 


11/11/2024
Market Analysis
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Separating Hype from Reality in Algorithmic Trading 
Read Time: 6 Minutes


The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in forex trading is reshaping the landscape of financial markets. With the potential to analyse vast data sets and execute trades at incredible speeds, AI offers exciting possibilities. However, traders must navigate the hype and understand the practical realities of AI's capabilities and limitations in the dynamic forex environment.



Table of Contents


  1. Introduction
  2. The Promise of AI in Forex
  3. Current Realities of AI in Forex
  4. Common Misconceptions
  5. AI vs. Human Traders
  6. The Future of AI in Forex
  7. Final Thoughts



Introduction


Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionising many industries, and forex trading is no exception. It’s estimated that AI-driven trading could reach US$19 billion in revenue by 2028.


According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF); “the share of AI content in patent applications related to algorithmic trading has risen from 19 percent in 2017 to over 50 percent each year since 2020, suggesting a wave of innovation is coming in this area.”





Although this may be exciting at first, every trader must be sure to distinguish between the hype, and reality.


AI is still evolving, and its application to the forex market is not yet foolproof. AI should be considered as a tool, rather than a solution to guaranteed profits. Although AI can process data incredibly quickly, human discretion is still a pivotal aspect of trading.


The Promise of AI in Forex


AI promises to bring numerous benefits to forex trading, often by outperforming humans in specific areas;


  • Enhanced Data Analysis: AI can analyse vast amounts of data in real-time, much quicker than any human ever could. It can quickly identify patterns across multiple currency pairs, interest rates, and economic indicators, something that would take human traders hours, if not, days.


  • Faster Trade Execution: In high-frequency trading (HFT), speed is everything. AI algorithms execute trades in milliseconds based on pre-set criteria, enabling traders to capture small, short-term price movements before the competition even reacts.


  • Emotion-Free Decision Making: Emotion and trading don’t mix - often leading to costly mistakes. AI removes the element of fear, greed, or hesitation, making decisions purely based on data and predefined algorithms. This is especially beneficial in volatile markets where emotional discipline is paramount.



Current Realities of AI in Forex


While the promises are enticing, the reality of AI in forex is far more complex. AI may have seen success in niche areas like high-frequency trading (HFT) and pattern recognition.


However, AI has significant limitations and challenges that traders must be aware of:


  • Data Dependency: AI is only as good as the data it’s given. Poor data quality or biased historical data can lead to incorrect predictions. This is why many AI models fail during black swan events that disrupt the market, such as the 2020 pandemic.


  • Complexity in Adapting to Market Conditions: AI excels in stable or predictable environments but struggles in a chaotic environment that poses many unforeseen disruptions and volatility. The most recent example, the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic, many institutions had become accustomed to.


As an example, financial institutions have been known to use AI algorithms to exploit small price discrepancies across different markets, leading to some great successes. However, when the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic disrupted markets, AI struggled to adapt to the rapidly changing conditions and, in some cases, leading to large losses for the institutions running them.


For more insights on how AI is evolving in forex trading, you can check out this detailed post on Fusion Markets, where the use of AI tools like ChatGPT is discussed in the context of market analysis and trading strategies.



Common Misconceptions About AI in Forex


There’s no shortage of misconceptions about AI's role in forex trading;


  • "Set it and forget it" myth: Many traders believe AI can be programmed once and left to generate profits indefinitely. This is far from reality. AI algorithms require constant monitoring, updating, and recalibration to keep pace with the ever-changing dynamics of the market.


  • AI guarantees profits: Some traders fall for the myth that AI trading guarantees profits. However, no system—AI or otherwise—can ensure consistent profits. Forex markets are affected by too many unpredictable factors, such as global politics, economic crises, and even natural disasters, for any system to be foolproof.


  • AI can predict black swan events: Despite all its power, AI cannot predict rare, unpredictable events like black swans. These events, by their nature, fall outside the scope of traditional data patterns and are difficult for AI to forecast.



AI vs. Human: A Balanced Comparison





AI and human traders bring different strengths to the table, and understanding these distinctions is key to developing a robust, and successful, trading strategy.


  • AI’s Strengths: AI excels at processing massive amounts of data, identifying subtle market patterns, and executing trades with precision and speed. It removes human biases and can operate 24/7 without fatigue.


  • Human Trader’s Strengths: On the other hand, human traders excel in areas where AI currently struggles—especially in understanding the broader context behind market movements. Human intuition, experience, and the ability to adapt to unpredictable events are areas where traders can outperform AI. For instance, human traders can weigh the political implications of an unexpected event, such as Brexit, where AI on the other hand might struggle to incorporate in real-time decision-making.


A hybrid approach that combines AI’s strengths with human insight may be the best way forward. AI can manage data processing and execution, while human traders focus on strategy, risk management, and adjusting for unforeseen market conditions.



The Future of AI in Forex


It’s still early days for AI in forex trading, but it’s rapidly evolving. Emerging technologies such as Natural Language Processing (NLP) and quantum computing are expected to transform AI's role in the financial markets further.


  • NLP: This allows AI systems to interpret news articles, social media sentiment, and other forms of unstructured data that can influence market movements. For example, NLP can be used to gauge how a new economic policy or geopolitical event may impact currency pairs.


  • Quantum Computing: While still theoretical in many applications, quantum computing holds the potential to perform complex calculations much faster than traditional computers. This could give AI even greater predictive power in markets where speed and computational capacity are crucial.



Our Final Thoughts


AI has undeniably transformed many industries, including the forex market. Whilst it can enhance data analysis, execution speed, and remove emotional biases, it’s no holy grail. The best approach is to employ AI with a balanced perspective—recognising its limitations whilst leveraging its strengths to complement your own trading strategies.


In short, AI is a powerful tool, but not a guarantee of success. The key to successful AI-driven trading lies in combining human intuition with algorithmic precision – we, as traders, must keep an eye on these trends but always remain cautious about relying on AI-driven systems.


Happy Trading

29/10/2024
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