About Us
Trading
Platform & Tools
Partner with us
Help
Create an account LOG IN

Loading...
No results

When the time comes to buy, you won't want to

post content image

Much of what we write about in these articles is about the mindset and behaviour of traders and trading. The reason for this is quite straight forward; it's because it's the decisions that we make and take that will ultimately determine how we perform as traders.

 

Yes, of course, price changes in the markets will play their part but, in the end, it's our decision whether to get involved or not and that determines how much capital we commit to trade, how long we hold the position for, and what the ultimate outcome of the trade will be.


Hidden costs

When we examine the costs of trading, we tend to focus on commissions and spreads and our PnL, but there are other costs, costs that we don't consider when really, we should.

 

These are the costs of inactivity and indecision, the costs of listening to outside influences more than to your own inner feelings and intuition. They are the costs of missing out, what economists call "opportunity costs".

 

Self-doubt among traders is not unusual, and in truth, it's better to exercise a degree of caution than to be 100% confident about everything you do. Hubris has been the downfall of many traders, and we certainly advocate being prudent with your risk. That said, It's always worth testing your thinking and assumptions and checking that they are still valid before you trade.

 

The problem comes when you start to talk yourself out of the trade entirely. After all, trading is a risk and reward business. There can be no profit without the possibility of loss.

 

A trader's job is to try and ensure that the risk that they take is in proportion to the potential rewards they could make. Not taking that risk could be limiting your potential as a trader which in turn may be limiting your rewards or returns.

 

Moments of clarity


Sometimes as a trader or investor, you will enjoy a moment of clarity, a moment of pure thought and insight, in which you can see exactly how a market setup or situation will playout. Moments when you just know you are right

 

If that moment of clarity coincides with significant moves in the markets, then that can be a very valuable situation indeed. But only if you act on it.

 

Allow me to tell you a personal story. During the great 2020 downturn in oil (where a Saudi/Russia price war caused prices to go NEGATIVE), I found myself holding oil from $30 a barrel and riding it all the way down watching in sheer horror. I kept buying the dip. How much lower could it go, I thought? I ignored every rule and everything I've written in the past about this. I didn't put a stop loss on. I told myself it was a long-term trade that I would stay in forever. Prices surely couldn't go below $20. That's madness. Then… The unthinkable happened in the futures price – it went negative.

 

Thankfully, Fusion's price didn't go negative (we use Spot Crude oil) but with spot prices at $15, I was sitting watching Netflix on my couch, and my heart raced as I saw it go down like World War III just started. The news sites told me nothing new had happened (funny how we search for any narrative to make sense of it all). Here it went. $14. $12. $11. Back to $12. Back to $11. $10. $9. Thoughtful me knew these prices were unsustainable. I told myself I would hold until it hit $0 if it had to. My account was down 70%. I'd never suffered such steep losses. I felt sick. I then couldn't sleep. I woke up, and it was still down a lot but had recovered from $7.


Watch out for the narratives.

 

I started to read more about what others were saying. What the hell was going on? Would this happen again? Yes, there was nowhere to store the oil (so the narrative went) but surely rationality would prevail. Seriously, how could you have negative prices? It was impossible to find anyone bullish in the media or otherwise. People assume if something just happened, it will occur again Goldman came out and said to expect more negative pricing. But I just couldn't believe it was so cheap. I knew it was time to buy more!

 

But then I didn't buy it. I waited for another opportunity for when I knew "the worst was over" I was so sure things would bounce back, but I didn't have the guts to buy one more time, and the opportunity passed me by forever. I let the external narrative cloud my previous judgement. But I was just so worried I couldn't think properly. Within days, it had doubled back to $15 a barrel. Then it was $20 a week later. At the time of writing it is $40 a barrel. By the time you read this, it might be $60 a barrel. Who knows? All I knew was fear and too much outside influence completely warped my view, and I failed. I just wanted to survive the calamity. While I survived to write you this, I did not do as well as I could have.


Self-belief


People often talk about having the courage of their convictions, but in trading, it's not really about courage, it's about belief, belief in yourself and your ideas and be prepared to back them, rather than talking yourself out of them, or allowing yourself to be talked out of them by others.

 

We all like to take advice and read and hear the opinions of so-called experts. But the absolute truth is that nobody really knows what going to happen next in the markets.

 

For example, nobody was predicting that an 11-year bull market in equities was going to end and end so abruptly in Q1 2020. Or that US unemployment would spiral to +14.7% in a single month.

 

Do not get me started on the rebound from the lows in March. To be bullish on the markets in April and May of 2020 was to look like you had lost your mind given the narratives surrounding COVID.

 

So-called "market legends" like Druckenmiller and Buffett told everyone it was not the time to buy. Sadly, so many would have listened.

 

Let's not forget Yogi Berra's famous saying "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" which is why it's best to take these so-called forecasts with a grain of salt. The best that any expert can do is to make a prediction or forecast about the future. And the longer the time frame that the forecast is over, or the more unusual the circumstances under which it is made, then the more significant the room for error and the higher the chance that they are simply wrong.


Loss aversion

As humans, we are subject to subconscious emotional biases that can cloud our decision making. One such bias is loss aversion.

 

Loss aversion can hamper a trader in two distinct ways. It's most commonly associated with the practice of running losses, ignoring stops and breaking money management rules when a trader can't or won't accept that they were wrong and refused to close a losing position.

 

The other way that loss aversion can muddy the waters is in our initial decision making. You see as species we are poor judges of risk and reward; we don't calculate probabilities very well, and the upshot of this is that we do not like uncertainty.

 

To the extent that when we are faced with situations that have a series of potential outcomes, we tend to favour the outcome with the highest degree of certainty. Even if that outcome is the least beneficial to us financially. Which, of course, is the exact opposite of the risk versus reward culture that we spoke about earlier.


Fortune favours the bold.


Though we might not like to admit it, our subconscious is often trying to talk us out of taking risks. Outside influences from the media, fear, our aversion to loss and a preference for certainty may often be our worst enemy as traders.

 

As Howard Marks said, "If you're doing the same thing as everyone else, how do you expect to outperform them"?

 

There have been several once in a generation trading opportunities over the last six months. I wonder how many of us were bold enough to seize the day and take advantage?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Trading Trading Psychology Trading Insights Forex Trading Tips

We’ll never share your email with third-parties. Opt-out anytime.

Relevant articles

Trading and Brokerage
post image main
Index CFD Dividends | Week 11/11/24

Read time: 3 minutes.


Please see the table below for any upcoming dividend adjustments on indices for the week starting November 11th, 2024.


FM Dividends 11/11/24

* Please note these figures are quoted in the index point amount

 

What is a dividend?


Dividends are a portion of company earnings given to shareholders. As indices are often composed of individual shares, an index dividend pays out based on individual shares proportional to the index’s weighting.


Trading on a CFD Index does not create any ownership of the underlying stocks, or an entitlement to receive the actual dividends from these companies.

 

What is an ex-dividend date?


An ex-dividend date is the cut-off date a share must be owned in order to receive a dividend. If an investor buys a share after the ex-dividend date, then they will not be entitled to earn or pay the next round of dividends. This is usually one business day before the dividend.

 

Do dividends affect my position?


Share prices should theoretically fall by the amount of the dividend. If the company has paid the dividend with cash, then there is less cash on the balance sheet, so in theory, the company should be valued lower (by the amount of the dividend).


Due to the corresponding price movement of the stock index when the ex-dividend date is reached, Fusion must provide a 'dividend' adjustment to ensure that no trader is positively or negatively impacted by the ex-dividend event.

 

How will the dividend appear on my account?


The dividend will appear as a cash adjustment on your account. If your base currency is different from the currency the dividend is paid out in, then it will be converted at the live FX rate to your base currency.

 

Why was I charged a dividend?


Depending on your position, given you are holding your position before the ex-dividend date, you will either be paid or charged the amount based on the dividend. Traders shorting an index will pay the dividend, whereas traders who are long the index will be paid the dividend.

 

Why didn’t I receive my dividend?


You may not have received a dividend for a number of reasons:


- You entered your position after the ex-dividend date

- You are trading an index without dividend payments

- You are short an index


If you believe the reasons above do not apply to your position, please reach out to our support team at [email protected] and we’ll investigate further for you.




01/11/2024
Trading and Brokerage
post image main
Building Your Forex Support Network

Read Time: 12 minutes


In the fast-paced world of forex trading, success often hinges on more than just market knowledge and technical skills. A crucial yet often overlooked aspect is the power of a strong support network. 

This network can provide invaluable insights, emotional support, and continuous learning opportunities that can significantly enhance your trading journey. In this article, we’ll discuss ideas on how you can build your own support network.



Table of Contents:



The Power of Community in Forex Trading


Forex trading can be a solitary endeavour, with traders spending hours analysing charts and executing trades. However, connecting with fellow traders can transform this experience into a collaborative and enriching one. A robust forex support network offers numerous benefits, including shared knowledge, emotional support, and access to diverse perspectives.


undefined

Learning Resources: The Foundation of Your Forex Education


Education forms the cornerstone of successful forex trading. As a trader, it's crucial to continually expand your knowledge and stay updated with market trends. Several platforms offer comprehensive educational resources for traders at all levels.



BabyPips: Your Forex University


BabyPips is renowned for its "School of Pipsology," a free, comprehensive forex trading course. It covers everything from basic terminology to advanced trading strategies, making it an excellent starting point for beginners and a valuable refresher for experienced traders.


Forex Factory: Your Market News Hub


Forex Factory is a go-to resource for many traders seeking up-to-date market news, economic calendars, and trading forums. Its user-friendly interface and real-time updates make it an indispensable tool for staying informed about market-moving events.


TradingView: Your Technical Analysis Companion


TradingView offers advanced charting tools and a platform for sharing trade ideas. With over 50 million users, it's not just a technical analysis tool but also a thriving community where traders can learn from each other's chart analyses and trading strategies.


undefined

The Benefits of Joining Trading Communities


Becoming part of a trading community can significantly accelerate your learning curve and provide ongoing support throughout your trading journey.



Guidance from Experienced Traders


One of the most valuable aspects of trading communities is access to experienced traders. These seasoned traders can offer insights into market dynamics, share proven strategies, and provide mentorship. Their guidance can help you avoid common pitfalls and develop a more nuanced understanding of the forex market.



Real-Time Market Insights


Trading communities often feature live discussions about current market trends and potential trading opportunities. This real-time information can be invaluable in making informed trading decisions. Members often share their analyses of market conditions, providing diverse perspectives that can enhance your own market understanding.



Collaborative Learning Through Trade Ideas and Chart Analysis


Many trading communities encourage members to share their trade ideas and chart analyses. This collaborative approach to learning allows you to see how other traders interpret market data and make decisions. By examining different approaches, you can refine your own trading strategy and discover new techniques.



Emotional Support and Motivation


Trading can be an emotional rollercoaster, with highs of successful trades and lows of losses. A supportive community can provide the emotional backing needed during challenging times. Sharing experiences with fellow traders who understand the unique pressures of forex trading can help maintain motivation and resilience.



Active Participation: The Key to Maximising Community Benefits


While joining a trading community is a great first step, the real value comes from active participation. Engage in discussions, ask questions, and share your own insights. The more you contribute, the more you're likely to gain from the community.


Building Your Personal Forex Support Network


Beyond online communities, consider building a personal support network. This could include:


  • Family and Friends: Their encouragement and understanding, especially during your dedicated trading and learning hours, can create a favourable environment for your trading journey.
  • Trading Mentor: A mentor can offer tailored advice based on your trading style and goals, helping you navigate the complexities of trading the forex market.
  • Fellow Traders: Connecting with other traders, whether online or in-person, can provide peer support and opportunities for knowledge exchange.

undefined

Leveraging Online Platforms for Community Building


Several online platforms facilitate community building among forex traders:



Forex Forums

Platforms such as Forex Factory, BabyPips, and MyFXbook host active forums where traders discuss various topics, from basic concepts to advanced strategies. These forums are excellent places to ask questions, share experiences, and learn from diverse perspectives.


Social Trading Platforms

Platforms like eToro and ZuluTrade allow you to follow and copy trades of successful traders. This can be an excellent way to learn from experienced traders while potentially benefiting from their expertise.


Trading-Focused Social Media

Many traders use Twitter, LinkedIn, and specialised platforms like TradingView to share insights and connect with other traders. Following reputable traders and analysts on these platforms can provide a steady stream of valuable information and opportunities for engagement.




The Role of Brokers in Your Support Network


Your forex broker can also be a valuable part of your support network. Many brokers offer educational resources, webinars, and customer support to help you navigate the trading platform and understand market dynamics. Choose a broker that aligns with your needs and offers robust support services.




Continuous Learning: The Lifeline of Forex Trading


The forex market is dynamic, with conditions constantly evolving. Your support network should facilitate continuous learning to help you stay ahead of market trends. Look for communities and resources that regularly update their content and provide insights into emerging market patterns.




Risk Management: A Community Effort


While individual traders are ultimately responsible for their own risk management, a supportive community can provide valuable insights into effective risk management strategies. Discussions about position sizing, stop-loss placement, and overall risk exposure can help you refine your approach to risk.




Navigating the Challenges of Online Communities


While online communities offer numerous benefits, it's important to approach them with a critical mind. Not all advice is created equal, and it's crucial to verify information from multiple sources. Be wary of individuals promising guaranteed returns or pushing specific trades. A healthy scepticism combined with thorough research will serve you well in navigating online forex communities.




The Global Nature of Forex Communities


One of the unique aspects of forex trading is its global nature. Your support network can include traders from around the world, providing insights into different market sessions and regional economic factors. This global perspective can enhance your understanding of currency pair movements and international economic dynamics.




Technology and Forex Communities


Advancements in technology have revolutionised how forex communities interact. From mobile apps that allow real-time chat with fellow traders to AI-powered tools that aggregate community sentiment, technology is making it easier than ever to stay connected with your forex support network. Embrace these technological tools to enhance your community experience and trading outcomes.



The Psychological Benefits of a Support Network


Trading can be psychologically demanding, with the potential for stress and emotional decision-making. A strong support network can provide a psychological buffer, offering encouragement during tough times and helping you maintain a balanced perspective. This emotional support can be crucial in developing the mental resilience necessary for long-term trading success.




Conclusion: Your Path to Forex Success


Building a robust forex support network is not just beneficial; it's essential for long-term success in trading forex. From educational resources to emotional backing, the right connections can significantly enhance your trading experience.


By actively participating in trading communities, engaging with mentors, and utilizing the plethora of online resources available, you can create a comprehensive support network that fosters your growth as a trader.


Remember, the journey of forex trading is not just about numbers; it’s about the community and connections that can help you navigate the complexities of the market. Start building your support network today and watch your trading journey flourish!


02/10/2024
Ready to Start Trading?
Get started live or get a free demo
GET A LIVE ACCOUNT OR TRY A FREE DEMO