Fusion Markets

A wonderful client of ours named Jimmy from up north in Indonesia wanted to learn a little more information about the sentiment tools that we have on offer.  We love helping traders grow and your feedback so figured it deserved its own post.

Because the sentiment is based on advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP), an advanced form of Artificial Intelligence, we know it might seem daunting to look at on first glance, so hopefully, you find the below Q&A interesting.  

What is the sentiment chart telling me? Is there any significance to the “wave” itself?  

The wave line is the sentiment score. The wave effect was created to show that contrary to prices on the particular asset class, the sentiment is not a precise measure. It is more a proxy than anything else.  
 

What is the sentiment score? How is that calculated?  

The machine learning model creates a sentiment score by scouring all of the words in the sources selected (e.g. nouns, pronouns, adjectives) within the articles it scans each day. In a simplified way, it is the difference of the score of the positive words (e.g. good, very good, great) minus the score of the negative words (e.g. bad, very bad, awful) embedded within the article.  

The calculation is made on a 24h rolling window with a recalculation latency of 15 minutes.  

The usefulness of the current sentiment the score is relatively short term (1-3 weeks).  

What is the subjectivity score? How did it arrive at this number? What happens if it goes higher or lower?  

The subjectivity is calculated on the difference between the factual words and the emotional words embedded within an article. If there are a lot of words that fall into the “fear” lexicon for instance compared to factual observation, then the gauge will be more inclined towards subjectivity or irrationality. At 0% the gauge would tell you there is no irrationality from the crowd and any article published is based on factual elements. If the gauge is above 50% and close to 100%, it means the crowd is a bit irrational about the asset and the price of the asset is not a reflection of its fundamental value. This is a great tool to detect bubbles in asset classes like equities.  

What is the confidence index?  

The confidence index is a relative index. It looks at the history of the volume of news and will scan over a period of 24 hours. If the volume of news is greater than the average of news published over the last 7 days, it would give you an indication about the quality of the sentiment score and how much trust you should have on it. e.g. if the sentient score is very positive but the confidence is low, you should be sceptical of the sentiment. In summary, the more sources and the more information, the more accurate the AI will be in providing its level of confidence.  

That’s a good question and is one that was posed by a man with many years of experience in the markets, Charley Ellis. Ellis, after a stint on Wall Street, founded Greenwich Associates in 1972 which grew into one of the world's most respected research houses. He said:

“Go to a continuous-process factory sometime — a chemical plant, a cookie manufacturer, a place that makes toothpaste. Everything is perfectly repetitive, automated, exactly in place. If you find anything interesting, you’ve found something wrong.

Investing is a continuous process, too; it isn’t supposed to be interesting. It’s a responsibility. If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose. Everyone who thinks the stock market is a game loses — everyone, to the last man, woman and child.

So, the purpose of an investment policy is simply to ensure that your continuous process never breaks down...

Benign neglect is the secret to long-term investing success. If you change your investment policy, you are likely to be wrong; if you change it with a sense of urgency, you’re guaranteed to be wrong.”

There is a lot of sense in those comments after all the key to successful trading is finding a system, trading style or approach that works for you, and does so consistently.

Developing or creating that approach gives you your edge, which is something that every trader needs if they are to succeed and grow their capital long term. Creating a viable trading strategy or trading edge is the exact opposite to the random and emotional trading that sees many new and aspiring traders come to grief early on their career.

When we read about great traders, we often wonder what makes them different to you and me and what it would take to follow in their footsteps. Let’s be honest we probably aren’t going to be the next George Soros, Ray Dalio or Jim Simons. However, what we can do is to emulate their systematic approach to the markets.

Systemising your trading is about creating a set of rules which describe your trading approach, the opportunities you look for, and the risk management ratios you apply.

Once you have written these down, you have effectively created your trading plan, and what’s more, you have laid the groundwork for creating an algorithmic strategy.

An algorithm or algo is just a set of rules that a computer can follow and execute. Of course, nearly all trading today is conducted electronically. Yet, as much as 70% of that business employs algorithms to improve trading efficiency, execution quality and anonymity. The latter can be beneficial in retaining your trading edge and not seeing it arbitraged away.

A report by Business Wire predicts that Algorithmic trading will experience a compounded annual growth rate or CAGR of 10% per anum between 2018-2026. Two years into that period, and there is no suggestion that the analysis is wrong.

Using a rules-based system to decide when you should buy and sell is the key to maximising your profitability. And perhaps just as importantly, minimising your losses. Leaving those decisions to our emotional selves is not a viable option for long term trading success.

As we have discussed before, our psyche contains biases, emotional responses and short cuts that are not suited to trading and they can actually hinder the process. It’s far better to use a systematic rules-based approach that can help us run winners and cut losses rather than the other way around.

To take your trading to the next level, you need to ask yourself a question, and that is...

Have you developed a system, or are you just having a punt?

Do you follow a set of trading rules and stick to them each time you trade? Think about your trade sizes, risk-reward ratios, the use and placement of stop losses. Consider the average profitability of your trades and how often and by how much do the results deviate from that average?

Much of this data will, of course, be available to your in trade history and statements that’s one of the great benefits of electronic trading. It should be possible to identify the products you trade well and the time of day (your peak). Not to mention those times you switch gears and try to trade something you’ve never done before. E.g. an FX Trader dabbling into commodities because it’s “hot”.

A very effective way to systemise your trading and improve its efficiency is not to trade in the instruments, and at the times of day that you do poorly on. And instead, focus on the most profitable areas of your trading. You will be amazed at just how much difference that simple change could make.

Finally, ask yourself, are you getting too excited about your trading and the individual positions that you take? Do you wake up in the middle of the night dreaming about your positions or checking them? If you are, then you are probably taking too much risk.

You see a trader should largely ambivalent about individual positions, because if he or she has systemised their process, then trades will be a bit like riding the tube in London, that is, another one will be along in a minute.

What will or should be of concern to them, however, is whether they are making the most out of every trade that comes by. Better to be focused on the process and the system and not the individual trade outcomes. Transitioning from one way of thinking and approach to the other will very much put on the right route for trading success.

That's just the way it is
Things will never be the same
That's just the way it is
...Some things will never change

2pac - Changes

In modern life, our focus is often on change. We quickly assess something as either Good changes or bad changes.

Change is also the lifeblood of the financial markets which would, of course, be pretty dull if everything remained static and prices never moved.

However, the opposite is true in these days of computerised and algorithmic trading.

Prices are rarely static and fluctuate throughout the trading day, which blends seamlessly into the next business day across the working week, which may eventually extend into the weekend as well, but I digress.

As much as our lives are driven by or focused on changes, they are underpinned by many constants, things that don’t change over time no matter how much the world and our everyday lives do.

Information

One of the constants today is information, inside thirty years, the internet and world wide web have become an integral part of our lives. To the extent that we can overload ourselves with information on almost any subject imaginable in seconds.

However, there is a big difference between having that information at our fingertips and understanding a subject or topic thoroughly, and it's very easy to conflate one with the other.

You can feel like an expert when in fact you may have missed the point entirely. Reading between the lines is often what's most important, and we need to recognise that we don't know as much we think we do and be comfortable with reconciling ourselves to that.

In trading, even in the information age, we can only ever hope to see a fraction of the big picture. The only comfort is it's exactly the same for almost everybody else.

If you think you really can understand the exact reason the market has gone up or down, think again. The financial media will say the market went up or down for the same reason. Could they ever admin something like: “There’s no story we could slap on this for why the market went up today. It just did”. No.

Greed and fear

Another constant in trading is the role of Greed and Fear these are the two primary drivers of investor behaviour, particularly when we are looking at that in aggregate.

That is, when we consider the trading crowd. The crowd has always been with us, journalist Charles Mackay wrote about them in his 1841 work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

In the book, Mackay looked back to events in 1720, the South Sea bubble, and the Dutch Tulip mania of 1637, to highlight just how crowd behaviour, driven initially by greed and subsequently by fear, leads to the creation and bursting of investment/trading bubbles. If those bubbles become big enough then they can not only affect the markets but also the real economy too.

Speculation is as old as the hills and financial crises are nothing new. In fact, in modern times they have become cyclical, occurring around once every 10 years or so, for example, we had the 1987 crash, the Russian default and Asian currency crisis of 1998 and the subsequent dot com crash. That was followed in turn by the Credit Crunch and Global Financial Crisis of 2007/8 and more recently the COVID crash.

A decade is enough time for a new generation of traders to enter a market and each new generation believes that “this time it’s different” a phrase which is often described as being the four most dangerous words in trading.

Traders make the same mistakes and fall foul of the same biases and behaviour as their forebears did. It’s just that now there are scientific labels for it (we do love to put a label on something).

If you read trading books like the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (first published in 1923) you instantly recognise patterns of behaviour regularly seen among market participants today.

Too much risk

One of those behaviors is taking too much risk or over-trading, relative to your capital base. That's often brought about because markets move in one direction for an extended period. People climb on board the trend, and the longer it goes on the more they believe it won't end and the greedier they get.

They don't deliberately mean to do this but one of the characteristics of bubble behaviour, because that's what this is, is the participants inability to tell that they are in a bubble. The narrative simply changes. When you’re inside the bubble you will cut off contact with or ignore those on the outside looking in or who have a different viewpoint or opinion.

Market aphorisms or sayings are grounded in the truth and experience of history they may sound quaint, but they are there to teach us a lesson, and none more so than

 “It's only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked”

In this case, the tide going out is the market changing direction and those swimming naked are the overleveraged and overlong bulls in the bubble. Markets crash because the trading crowd wakes up to the existence of the bubble simultaneously, and everyone heads for the exit at the same time, as greed turns into fear.

A good trader knows not to outstay their welcome, and that it is always better to leave the party before the end.

We’re not saying that markets don’t change and evolve over time and that a strategy you use will work forever, but the same fundamental principles like we’ve tried to highlight such as greed and fear never will.  Some things will never change.

Hi Traders,

By popular demand, we wanted to share our top five most used tools and features that are provided to you for free in our client area.

These are a bit like my Top Five Tools for Traders, but these are a little different as they're all internal rather than other websites or companies. 

Here are 5 of the most popular tools (in order) our clients are loving:

#1 - Analyst Views by Trading Central. This is my personal favourite. You can view it in the hub now, download it and use it as an indicator on MT4 desktop (in "Downloads on Hub) or visit your "News" tab in MT4 where it's constantly updated too.

#2 - The Economic Calendar is a must too. Are you using this already? If you're trading and don't know what announcements are coming up, you could easily be blown away by a big move and have no idea why. My favourite is that it will show you the historical price impact of previous announcements. You can even save the future events as a calendar invite!

#3 - News Tab - Knowledge is power. You know that already. You might already have your own news sources which are cool, but with Fusion's news tab, you can create a personalised feed (e.g. only show me EURUSD) or see what's most popular for others. Don't be an uninformed trader.

#4 - Sentiment - I love the idea of knowing what the crowd is bullish or bearish on. What are people talking about? Why are they talking about it? Check out our post on why this is important.

#5 - Technical insight is excellent if you'd like to go into a deeper dive on technical analysis on Forex and Indices. I prefer these charts over MT4 truth be told and want to know short, medium and long term outlook for each trade I'm considering.

That's it for now. We've built these for you and believe they'll truly help you excel as a trader.

#6 – Historical and Live Spreads Tool - with this tool, you can see how spreads have fluctuated over time, as well as the current live spreads. This information can be incredibly valuable in helping you make informed decisions about when to enter and exit trades. No more surprises, no more hidden fees – just transparent, competitive pricing. Read our blog post to learn how spreads actually affect your trading costs. 

Much of what we write about in these articles is about the mindset and behaviour of traders and trading. The reason for this is quite straight forward; it's because it's the decisions that we make and take that will ultimately determine how we perform as traders.

Yes, of course, price changes in the markets will play their part but, in the end, it's our decision whether to get involved or not and that determines how much capital we commit to trade, how long we hold the position for, and what the ultimate outcome of the trade will be.

Hidden costs

When we examine the costs of trading, we tend to focus on commissions and spreads and our PnL, but there are other costs, costs that we don't consider when really, we should.

These are the costs of inactivity and indecision, the costs of listening to outside influences more than to your own inner feelings and intuition. They are the costs of missing out, what economists call "opportunity costs".

Self-doubt among traders is not unusual, and in truth, it's better to exercise a degree of caution than to be 100% confident about everything you do. Hubris has been the downfall of many traders, and we certainly advocate being prudent with your risk. That said, It's always worth testing your thinking and assumptions and checking that they are still valid before you trade.

The problem comes when you start to talk yourself out of the trade entirely. After all, trading is a risk and reward business. There can be no profit without the possibility of loss.

A trader's job is to try and ensure that the risk that they take is in proportion to the potential rewards they could make. Not taking that risk could be limiting your potential as a trader which in turn may be limiting your rewards or returns.

Moments of clarity

Sometimes as a trader or investor, you will enjoy a moment of clarity, a moment of pure thought and insight, in which you can see exactly how a market setup or situation will playout. Moments when you just know you are right

If that moment of clarity coincides with significant moves in the markets, then that can be a very valuable situation indeed. But only if you act on it.

Allow me to tell you a personal story. During the great 2020 downturn in oil (where a Saudi/Russia price war caused prices to go NEGATIVE), I found myself holding oil from $30 a barrel and riding it all the way down watching in sheer horror. I kept buying the dip. How much lower could it go, I thought? I ignored every rule and everything I've written in the past about this. I didn't put a stop loss on. I told myself it was a long-term trade that I would stay in forever. Prices surely couldn't go below $20. That's madness. Then… The unthinkable happened in the futures price – it went negative.

Thankfully, Fusion's price didn't go negative (we use Spot Crude oil) but with spot prices at $15, I was sitting watching Netflix on my couch, and my heart raced as I saw it go down like World War III just started. The news sites told me nothing new had happened (funny how we search for any narrative to make sense of it all). Here it went. $14. $12. $11. Back to $12. Back to $11. $10. $9. Thoughtful me knew these prices were unsustainable. I told myself I would hold until it hit $0 if it had to. My account was down 70%. I'd never suffered such steep losses. I felt sick. I then couldn't sleep. I woke up, and it was still down a lot but had recovered from $7.

Watch out for the narratives.

I started to read more about what others were saying. What the hell was going on? Would this happen again? Yes, there was nowhere to store the oil (so the narrative went) but surely rationality would prevail. Seriously, how could you have negative prices? It was impossible to find anyone bullish in the media or otherwise. People assume if something just happened, it will occur again Goldman came out and said to expect more negative pricing. But I just couldn't believe it was so cheap. I knew it was time to buy more!

But then I didn't buy it. I waited for another opportunity for when I knew "the worst was over" I was so sure things would bounce back, but I didn't have the guts to buy one more time, and the opportunity passed me by forever. I let the external narrative cloud my previous judgement. But I was just so worried I couldn't think properly. Within days, it had doubled back to $15 a barrel. Then it was $20 a week later. At the time of writing it is $40 a barrel. By the time you read this, it might be $60 a barrel. Who knows? All I knew was fear and too much outside influence completely warped my view, and I failed. I just wanted to survive the calamity. While I survived to write you this, I did not do as well as I could have.

Self-belief

People often talk about having the courage of their convictions, but in trading, it's not really about courage, it's about belief, belief in yourself and your ideas and be prepared to back them, rather than talking yourself out of them, or allowing yourself to be talked out of them by others.

We all like to take advice and read and hear the opinions of so-called experts. But the absolute truth is that nobody really knows what going to happen next in the markets.

For example, nobody was predicting that an 11-year bull market in equities was going to end and end so abruptly in Q1 2020. Or that US unemployment would spiral to +14.7% in a single month.

Do not get me started on the rebound from the lows in March. To be bullish on the markets in April and May of 2020 was to look like you had lost your mind given the narratives surrounding COVID.

So-called "market legends" like Druckenmiller and Buffett told everyone it was not the time to buy. Sadly, so many would have listened.

Let's not forget Yogi Berra's famous saying "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" which is why it's best to take these so-called forecasts with a grain of salt. The best that any expert can do is to make a prediction or forecast about the future. And the longer the time frame that the forecast is over, or the more unusual the circumstances under which it is made, then the more significant the room for error and the higher the chance that they are simply wrong.

Loss aversion

As humans, we are subject to subconscious emotional biases that can cloud our decision making. One such bias is loss aversion.

Loss aversion can hamper a trader in two distinct ways. It's most commonly associated with the practice of running losses, ignoring stops and breaking money management rules when a trader can't or won't accept that they were wrong and refused to close a losing position.

The other way that loss aversion can muddy the waters is in our initial decision making. You see as species we are poor judges of risk and reward; we don't calculate probabilities very well, and the upshot of this is that we do not like uncertainty.

To the extent that when we are faced with situations that have a series of potential outcomes, we tend to favour the outcome with the highest degree of certainty. Even if that outcome is the least beneficial to us financially. Which, of course, is the exact opposite of the risk versus reward culture that we spoke about earlier.

Fortune favours the bold.

Though we might not like to admit it, our subconscious is often trying to talk us out of taking risks. Outside influences from the media, fear, our aversion to loss and a preference for certainty may often be our worst enemy as traders.

As Howard Marks said, "If you're doing the same thing as everyone else, how do you expect to outperform them"?

There have been several once in a generation trading opportunities over the last six months. I wonder how many of us were bold enough to seize the day and take advantage?

ง่ายๆ ถ้าคุณต้องการให้เงินในบัญชีเทรดที่คุณเพิ่งฝากไปหยกๆ หมดไปอย่างรวดเร็ว เพียงแค่คุณทำตามขั้นตอนต่อไปนี้

1. พยายามหาอินดิเคเตอร์ ที่สามารถใช้ได้ในทุกสถานการณ์ – และเมื่อคุณคิดว่า อินดิเคเตอร์ของคุณแหล่มกว่าใครๆแล้ว ให้คิดว่าอินดิเคเตอร์ตัวนี้จะผลิตเงินให้คุณได้มากมาย ให้คุณทรด Volume ใหญ่ๆ เทรดเยอะๆ และคิดว่าบัญชีเทรดของคุณจะมีแต่ บวก บวก และก็บวก!

2. เมื่ออินดิเคเตอร์ของคุณบอกคุณว่า ตอนนี้มัน Oversold แล้ว ให้ เข้า BUY ได้เลยทันที ไม่ต้องคิดอะไรอย่างอื่นแล้ว ไม่ต้องคิดว่าจะมีข่าวใหญ่ๆกำลังจะออกหรือไม่ อินดิเคเตอร์นี้ชัวร์ที่สุดในโลก!

3. ไม่ต้องสนใจสถานการณ์เศรษฐกิจไม่ต้องดูปฏิทินข่าวใดๆทั้งนั้น - เรื่องพวกนี้มันน่าเบื่อมากจริงๆ อย่าไปสนใจมันก็ได้ ดูกราฟเฉยๆ เดี๋ยวก็มีจังหวะที่อินดิเคเตอร์ของคุณบอกเองว่าถึงเวลาเข้าตลาดเพื่อทำกำไร

4. เชื่อการวิเคราะห์ของคนอื่น - ให้เข้าไปดูในกรุ๊ปต่างๆที่คนพูดเกี่ยวกับการเทรดฟอเร็กซ์และอ่านไปเรื่อยๆจนคุณเจอความคิดเห็นที่คิดเหมือนคุณเป๊ะเลย ให้เชื่อเขา และทำตามที่เขาบอก คนคิดแบบเรามีน้อยจังแฮะ เราและเขาคนนั้นจะรวยไปด้วยกัน

5. เข้าไปดูคนอื่นแสดงความคิดเห็นเกี่ยวกับวิธีการเทรดของเขา และลองทำตามดูเลยทันที ไม่ต้องหาข้อมูลอะไรเพิ่มเติมเลย ทำตามเขาไปเดี๋ยวก็ได้กำไรแบบเขาเอง

6. ไม่ต้องวางแผนการเทรด ถ้าเห็นจังหวะปุ๊บ ให้เข้าเทรดปั๊บ ไม่ต้องคิดเยอะ
7.ให้คิดถึงแต่ว่าคุณจะเทรดได้เงินเท่าไหร่ ไม่ต้องคิดว่าโอกาสในการขาดทุนมีเท่าไหร่ เพราะเรามั่นใจว่าเรามีแต่จะได้ กับได้ !

8. ไม่ต้องเซท Stop loss คนเก่งๆเค้าไม่ต้องมีหรอก Stop loss คนอย่างเราไม่มีวันแพ้

9. ใช้อารมณ์ในการเทรดมากๆหน่อย เห็นกราฟแล้วรู้สึกว่าต้องเข้าได้แล้ว มันเป็นจังหวะที่ดีมากๆ เห็นแล้วเข้าเลย

คำแนะนำ
ทำตามวิธีการเหล่านี้ให้มากที่สุดเท่าที่ทำได้ อีกไม่นานเท่าไหร่ บัญชีเทรดของคุณจะต้องเกือบเป็นศูนย์ (หรือติดลบ) แน่ๆ
แต่.....ถ้าไม่อยากให้บัญชีเทรดขาดทุนมากๆ คุณน่าจะรู้ว่าสิ่งเหล่านี้คือสิ่งที่ไม่ควรทำ