Fusion Markets

Sleepless nights are a common predicament for most traders. It is the only time you are not consciously screening the markets. As stressful as it can be to sleep with volatile open positions, it is extremely important that you beat the urge to make impulsive moves and that you give your brain some rest.

Since the forex markets run 24/5, most people barely get enough sleep while the markets are open. But this kind of lifestyle will ultimately lead you to make sub-optimal biased trading decisions.

Depending on which part of the world you’re in, the markets might move the most while you should be asleep. For those here in Australia, we are sleeping while the US is in their trading day, which, when you have large open positions active in the market, can make it even more difficult to get a good sleep.

But here’s the thing most traders are not thinking about. Getting a good night’s sleep every day is just as crucial as your fundamental and technical knowledge. Still, many of us tend to overlook a good rest, thinking we can survive on far less than we need. Let’s look at why sleep is essential for forex trading and how to cultivate a good sleep routine.

Why is sleep important for traders?

Sleep plays a big part in our mental wellness, which then affects our decision-making for the day.When you’re placing trades that involve vast amounts of money along with prices that change every second, you want the part of your brain that makes decisions (the pre-frontal cortex, if we’re being precise) to be in tiptop shape.

Ask any elite athlete what one of the most essential tools they have for recovery is, and it’s often sleep. Lebron James, for example, reportedly sleeps as much as 10 hours a night. Now I know what you’re thinking, “Well, I’m not an elite athlete and I’m certainly not Lebron”. But you are trying to obtain peak (trading) performance, right?

Trading involves competent risk management. Before you execute those trades, you want to have a clear picture of the risks and benefits so that you can make calculated and well-informed decisions. When you don’t allow your body and mind to rest well, your practical decision-making is overshadowed by restless behavior patterns.

Basically, good sleep keeps you sharp and productive. On the other hand, studies show that lack of sleep tends to impair decision-making involving complex factors and unexpected occurrences, which occurs quite a lot when the markets are open. By having good sleep regularly, you allow your brain to make unimpaired decisions compared to when you are sleep-deprived.

And speaking of the brain…  

What’s the science behind it?

First, let’s look at what goes on in your brain when you sleep.

Throughout the day, when you’re awake, the brain accumulates metabolic waste. You don’t even have to exercise or move around to accumulate it. Your body already expends energy by just keeping your basic functions running, like breathing and pumping blood.

In using energy, metabolic waste builds up in various parts of your body, your brain included. In time, the buildup can interfere with the peak functions of your brain. When you sleep, your brain sees the perfect opportunity to do some house cleaning. The brain has a built-in waste removal system which is called the glymphatic system.

Sure, the glymphatic system also works while you’re awake, but the cleanup process is at least twice as fast when you’re asleep. This is because your brain knows that there’s not much going on in your body, which allows it to focus on clearing up.

This is why you always feel refreshed and focused when you wake up after a good night’s sleep. And since mental wellness plays a huge part in your trading psychology and your trading mindset, you always want to be in this “clear” state whenever you’re trading. When you’re sleep-deprived, the part of your brain in charge of your fight or flight reactions — the amygdala — is far more stimulated than it would be when you’ve had a normal amount of sleep.

What does this mean for you as a trader?

Well, try to go back to the last time your fight or flight reaction (or amygdala hijack) got triggered. Maybe you were in a disagreement with a colleague or a friend, or you were in an emergency. Wasn’t it hard to stay focused because you felt like a thousand things were going on at once? Now think about how you feel when you’re sleep-deprived and a trade isn’t going your way and a new announcement means you need to think about the implications and what’s next for the market. Are you at your best cognitively at this point? Probably not.

A stimulated amygdala makes it hard to make logical decisions. It also cuts off access to your pre-frontal cortex, which is in charge of making logical decisions. And as forex traders, our trading mindset should always be governed by logical, not emotional, decisions.

Unfortunately, your brain is more likely to go into fight or flight mode with a lack of sleep. You aren’t thinking or seeing the market clearly. Maybe you’re paranoid about your trade, or you see things that aren’t there, or maybe you enter or exit the trade too early.
  

How does a good night’s sleep benefit your trading?

A good night’s sleep gives you good preparation for the trades you’ll be making the next day. Your brain is clearer, and your mind is sharper. When you look at the charts, you’ll be less likely to be influenced by sudden price fluctuations, which we know are all too common in financial markets, particularly in forex trading.

By consistently making good forex trading decisions, you’re more likely to see bigger gains in your trades.

In fact, one study  suggested that sleep-deprived forex traders had relatively lower returns because their decision-making skills were affected.

A good night’s sleep also promotes a healthy work-life balance. You may be a forex trader, but it’s also important to look into your personal health outside the financial markets. You feel more energized and alert when you are awake, allowing you to see new opportunities in the market that an otherwise tired trader might not. This could be your edge.  

Tips for sleeping better

Now that we’ve talked about why sleep is important, let’s talk about developing good sleeping habits.

First, reduce your screen exposure before bedtime. Blue light keeps our brains alert, and this is the kind of light that you usually see from your phones and your living room lights.

Put the phone down and shut off your computer. As hard as it is, that will mean trying to keep your eyes off the charts. Try having herbal tea (Peppermint, chamomile is best for relaxing), reading a physical book (to avoid more screentime), or doing something that relaxes you to get your brain ready for bed. If you really must check your phone or computer late at night, try using apps that make the screen appear “warmer,” giving it an orange tint or via “dark mode” starting from a couple of hours before your bedtime.

Orange lighting is less harsh compared to blue light, which makes it easier to eventually fall asleep.

Second, if you can afford it, separate your workspace from your bedroom. You want your brain to associate your bedroom with rest and relaxation so that as soon as you walk into the bedroom, your brain “gets” it and starts powering down. Playing on your phone or laptop in bed is likely confusing your brain.

Third, keep your room to a cool temperature. Ideally, between 18-20 degrees Celsius.

Finally, one of the worst things you can do is get up and check your phone or computer for what’s happening in the market. The screentime on your eyes, the adrenaline rush, and more will only cause you to make an emotional decision.

If it makes you feel better, a stop-loss or a take profit takes a lot of the unknowns out of the equation. Your trade will either have one of three things happen: It’s still open, it’s been closed with profit, or closed with a loss. By leaving the outcome to the market, you are more likely to think too heavily about it all through the night.

Forex trading is not all about the technical and analytical aspects. A sound body complements a sound mind. You should take care of both aspects to make sure you are at your best. In our view, a well-rested trader will likely exceed a sleep-deprived trader that’s not at peak cognitive performance.

In trading, as in life, we are faced with the need to assess complex situations and quickly make judgements or decisions. And in both cases, we can’t be certain what the outcome of those snap decisions will be. Though we have to deal with the consequences regardless, even if they don’t reveal themselves for some time.

I wonder how many of us look back at the choices we made and judge them solely by the outcome they achieved, be that good or bad, rather than looking at how we got to that endpoint?

Behavioural psychologists believe that if we look at events purely in terms of their results, we are under the influence of outcome bias and as such we are likely to have a flawed view on risk and reward.

That outlook has been famously summed up in the phrase “picking up dimes in front of a steam roller” which has been variously attributed to Nassim Taleb and or economists Martin Wolf/John Kay.

Whoever coined the term (no pun intended) got it just right, because if you are picking up those coins then yes you are acquiring money, but you can only afford to slip up once and then it will be game over, and in a very messy way.

Another renowned economist, John Maynard Keynes, wrote on the subject of risk-reward and outcomes, just over 100 hundred years ago, in his treatise on probability.

Where Keynes thinking differed from traditional schools of thought was that he believed that an event could be, what he called, objectively probable, even if it didn’t actually take place. And that it would remain so even if you were looking back at events at a future point in time.

For Keynes, it was more important to be rational in your decision making than to be right.

Keynes of course also famously said that “the markets can remain irrational for far longer than you can remain solvent “  

That is one of my favourite quotes on investing. It neatly sums up the practicalities of being rational versus being right, as far as a trader is concerned - Being right doesn’t necessarily make you money and in fact, even if you are right waiting for that to be proven could cost you a fortune.

Whereas being rational or pragmatic, and acknowledging that the market is “directionally right “ but for the wrong reasons (which is usually the sheer weight of money) is one thing. But then trading with the market until the point when the crowd realises their folly, is likely to be a more profitable approach in the long term.

After all, by adopting this approach you don’t have to time the market at all instead you just need to watch for the points at which the crowd turns. And to that, we can use momentum and sentiment indicators, which you can set up in advance.

In short, when it comes to trading at least, the process is more important than the outcome.

The British military has a saying which runs as follows: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

As a trader it’s hard to fault the logic in that statement, because if we believe that there is a symmetry between risk and reward, inputs and outputs, effort and results, and in trading where there must be a loser to offset every winner, why wouldn't you believe that?

Then if we don't prepare properly for each trade we make; we are not giving ourselves the best possible chance of making money.

We often say that a systemised approach to trading is the best one to adopt. What we mean is that we should have a framework of rules that we follow in each trade we make.

And we don't let our hearts rule our head or worst of all let our egos’ fools us into thinking that we have some special insight our secret trading sauce. Because in 99.9 times out of a hundred that won't be even remotely true.

Talent and luck will carry you only so far and many a sportsperson has built a successful career by recognising their own abilities and limitations, and then working hard to improve their technique and approach.

And in turn in recognising the weaknesses in their opponents game, which they can then exploit.

The opponents may still score against them but if they are reducing the rate at which they can score then they are doing something right, and they are slanting the odds of a positive outcome in their favour.

In trading, you won't win every contest but if you win more than you lose and have bigger wins and smaller loses, then, over the long term you will definitely come out on top.

That’s a good question and is one that was posed by a man with many years of experience in the markets, Charley Ellis. Ellis, after a stint on Wall Street, founded Greenwich Associates in 1972 which grew into one of the world's most respected research houses. He said:

“Go to a continuous-process factory sometime — a chemical plant, a cookie manufacturer, a place that makes toothpaste. Everything is perfectly repetitive, automated, exactly in place. If you find anything interesting, you’ve found something wrong.

Investing is a continuous process, too; it isn’t supposed to be interesting. It’s a responsibility. If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose. Everyone who thinks the stock market is a game loses — everyone, to the last man, woman and child.

So, the purpose of an investment policy is simply to ensure that your continuous process never breaks down...

Benign neglect is the secret to long-term investing success. If you change your investment policy, you are likely to be wrong; if you change it with a sense of urgency, you’re guaranteed to be wrong.”

There is a lot of sense in those comments after all the key to successful trading is finding a system, trading style or approach that works for you, and does so consistently.

Developing or creating that approach gives you your edge, which is something that every trader needs if they are to succeed and grow their capital long term. Creating a viable trading strategy or trading edge is the exact opposite to the random and emotional trading that sees many new and aspiring traders come to grief early on their career.

When we read about great traders, we often wonder what makes them different to you and me and what it would take to follow in their footsteps. Let’s be honest we probably aren’t going to be the next George Soros, Ray Dalio or Jim Simons. However, what we can do is to emulate their systematic approach to the markets.

Systemising your trading is about creating a set of rules which describe your trading approach, the opportunities you look for, and the risk management ratios you apply.

Once you have written these down, you have effectively created your trading plan, and what’s more, you have laid the groundwork for creating an algorithmic strategy.

An algorithm or algo is just a set of rules that a computer can follow and execute. Of course, nearly all trading today is conducted electronically. Yet, as much as 70% of that business employs algorithms to improve trading efficiency, execution quality and anonymity. The latter can be beneficial in retaining your trading edge and not seeing it arbitraged away.

A report by Business Wire predicts that Algorithmic trading will experience a compounded annual growth rate or CAGR of 10% per anum between 2018-2026. Two years into that period, and there is no suggestion that the analysis is wrong.

Using a rules-based system to decide when you should buy and sell is the key to maximising your profitability. And perhaps just as importantly, minimising your losses. Leaving those decisions to our emotional selves is not a viable option for long term trading success.

As we have discussed before, our psyche contains biases, emotional responses and short cuts that are not suited to trading and they can actually hinder the process. It’s far better to use a systematic rules-based approach that can help us run winners and cut losses rather than the other way around.

To take your trading to the next level, you need to ask yourself a question, and that is...

Have you developed a system, or are you just having a punt?

Do you follow a set of trading rules and stick to them each time you trade? Think about your trade sizes, risk-reward ratios, the use and placement of stop losses. Consider the average profitability of your trades and how often and by how much do the results deviate from that average?

Much of this data will, of course, be available to your in trade history and statements that’s one of the great benefits of electronic trading. It should be possible to identify the products you trade well and the time of day (your peak). Not to mention those times you switch gears and try to trade something you’ve never done before. E.g. an FX Trader dabbling into commodities because it’s “hot”.

A very effective way to systemise your trading and improve its efficiency is not to trade in the instruments, and at the times of day that you do poorly on. And instead, focus on the most profitable areas of your trading. You will be amazed at just how much difference that simple change could make.

Finally, ask yourself, are you getting too excited about your trading and the individual positions that you take? Do you wake up in the middle of the night dreaming about your positions or checking them? If you are, then you are probably taking too much risk.

You see a trader should largely ambivalent about individual positions, because if he or she has systemised their process, then trades will be a bit like riding the tube in London, that is, another one will be along in a minute.

What will or should be of concern to them, however, is whether they are making the most out of every trade that comes by. Better to be focused on the process and the system and not the individual trade outcomes. Transitioning from one way of thinking and approach to the other will very much put on the right route for trading success.

That's just the way it is
Things will never be the same
That's just the way it is
...Some things will never change

2pac - Changes

In modern life, our focus is often on change. We quickly assess something as either Good changes or bad changes.

Change is also the lifeblood of the financial markets which would, of course, be pretty dull if everything remained static and prices never moved.

However, the opposite is true in these days of computerised and algorithmic trading.

Prices are rarely static and fluctuate throughout the trading day, which blends seamlessly into the next business day across the working week, which may eventually extend into the weekend as well, but I digress.

As much as our lives are driven by or focused on changes, they are underpinned by many constants, things that don’t change over time no matter how much the world and our everyday lives do.

Information

One of the constants today is information, inside thirty years, the internet and world wide web have become an integral part of our lives. To the extent that we can overload ourselves with information on almost any subject imaginable in seconds.

However, there is a big difference between having that information at our fingertips and understanding a subject or topic thoroughly, and it's very easy to conflate one with the other.

You can feel like an expert when in fact you may have missed the point entirely. Reading between the lines is often what's most important, and we need to recognise that we don't know as much we think we do and be comfortable with reconciling ourselves to that.

In trading, even in the information age, we can only ever hope to see a fraction of the big picture. The only comfort is it's exactly the same for almost everybody else.

If you think you really can understand the exact reason the market has gone up or down, think again. The financial media will say the market went up or down for the same reason. Could they ever admin something like: “There’s no story we could slap on this for why the market went up today. It just did”. No.

Greed and fear

Another constant in trading is the role of Greed and Fear these are the two primary drivers of investor behaviour, particularly when we are looking at that in aggregate.

That is, when we consider the trading crowd. The crowd has always been with us, journalist Charles Mackay wrote about them in his 1841 work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

In the book, Mackay looked back to events in 1720, the South Sea bubble, and the Dutch Tulip mania of 1637, to highlight just how crowd behaviour, driven initially by greed and subsequently by fear, leads to the creation and bursting of investment/trading bubbles. If those bubbles become big enough then they can not only affect the markets but also the real economy too.

Speculation is as old as the hills and financial crises are nothing new. In fact, in modern times they have become cyclical, occurring around once every 10 years or so, for example, we had the 1987 crash, the Russian default and Asian currency crisis of 1998 and the subsequent dot com crash. That was followed in turn by the Credit Crunch and Global Financial Crisis of 2007/8 and more recently the COVID crash.

A decade is enough time for a new generation of traders to enter a market and each new generation believes that “this time it’s different” a phrase which is often described as being the four most dangerous words in trading.

Traders make the same mistakes and fall foul of the same biases and behaviour as their forebears did. It’s just that now there are scientific labels for it (we do love to put a label on something).

If you read trading books like the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (first published in 1923) you instantly recognise patterns of behaviour regularly seen among market participants today.

Too much risk

One of those behaviors is taking too much risk or over-trading, relative to your capital base. That's often brought about because markets move in one direction for an extended period. People climb on board the trend, and the longer it goes on the more they believe it won't end and the greedier they get.

They don't deliberately mean to do this but one of the characteristics of bubble behaviour, because that's what this is, is the participants inability to tell that they are in a bubble. The narrative simply changes. When you’re inside the bubble you will cut off contact with or ignore those on the outside looking in or who have a different viewpoint or opinion.

Market aphorisms or sayings are grounded in the truth and experience of history they may sound quaint, but they are there to teach us a lesson, and none more so than

 “It's only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked”

In this case, the tide going out is the market changing direction and those swimming naked are the overleveraged and overlong bulls in the bubble. Markets crash because the trading crowd wakes up to the existence of the bubble simultaneously, and everyone heads for the exit at the same time, as greed turns into fear.

A good trader knows not to outstay their welcome, and that it is always better to leave the party before the end.

We’re not saying that markets don’t change and evolve over time and that a strategy you use will work forever, but the same fundamental principles like we’ve tried to highlight such as greed and fear never will.  Some things will never change.