Preview: Earnings week of 20-24 April
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As we move towards the third week of the new quarter, it means earnings season will start to ramp up.
Last week saw overall good results from big banks, with beats across both top and bottom-line metrics.
Even though there were a few blemishes like Goldman’s trading revenues or the miss in net interest income from Wells, the overall numbers and messaging were good.
On the commentary side, the banks painted an overall positive picture of the economy, talking up the health of the consumer, and dispelling some concerns about credit quality.
Turning to the week ahead, there are a few names that markets will be paying close attention to like Tesla (TSLA), American Express (AXP) and United Health (UNH).
Price action has not been kind to Tesla with the stock trading down close to 20% from its December 2025 high.
With concerns about delivery numbers as well as a squeeze on margins, things don’t look too optimistic, heading into earnings this week.
Meaning that registrations of the hyped-up truck would have fallen 51% if it wasn’t for the sales made to SpaceX. So, investors will be looking closely at overall demand when going through the numbers.
Price is currently flirting with the 200D moving average with momentum still in bearish territory. The recent support around 386.30 looks important in case earnings disappoint this week.
The weekly implied volatility high comes in at 420, and low at 365, which will be important zones to watch as always.
The stock is trading down close to 15% since it’s December 2025 high.
Analyst consensus is looking for a quarterly EPS of 4.0 (full-year of 17.57), and quarterly revenue of 18.6B (full-year 79.1B).
After recent bank earnings showed little concerns about consumers, the bar for an upside surprise feels low, but as always, the focus will also fall on guidance.
The company recently announced its own shift towards embracing AI with their new AI developer kit. Markets have moved past pure AI hype though, so the company will arguably have to show decent revenue pick-up from any such efforts to impress investors.
On the technical side, momentum remains weak with price failing to close above the 200D moving average last week.
The 200D also have confluence with prior resistance around 336.85 and will be a key level to consider heading into earnings.
The weekly implied volatility high comes in around 354 and the low close to 320.
As the stock holds a roughly 4% weighting in the Dow so any big surprise, positive or negative, could impact the index as well.
The stock has had a rough ride in the past 18 months and trades down close to 50% from its November 2024 high.
Credibility hit from 2025 is still weighing on prices, and at this stage the new CEO Hemsley probably isn’t aiming to impress markets but just hoping they can show things are under control.
A key test for this quarter will be the Medical Loss Ratio, with any scare to the upside potentially risking more pain in the short-term.
The higher-than-expected CMS rates did little to boost confidence.
Also, guidance will have to prove that the loss in revenue from shedding millions of unprofitable members will translate into higher margins down the road.
On the technical side, one positive is that momentum looks less bleak after the recent pop higher, with price managing to break back above the 200DMA.
The weekly implied volatility high comes surprisingly tight, with the high sitting around 335 and the low around 315, very close to the 200DMA.
As the stock holds a roughly 4% weighting in the Dow, huge surprises should be watched not just for the stock but for impact on the broader index as well.
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